Tamil Nadu is known to alternate ruling parties in Assembly elections. The trend was broken by Jayalalithaa when the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) won in 2011 and 2016. Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leader M.K. Stalin now claims his party can replicate a similar back-to-back win. Is he overconfident? Can the Vijay factor be ignored?

Well, we cannot overlook his statement. It does seem likely that the DMK will return to power, primarily due to the lack of a strong opposition and also due to the DMK’s performance over the past five years. The opposition is fragmented and lacking in cohesion. Simply focussing on defeating the DMK is not enough; there needs to be a credible alternative to fight an ideologically strong party at the hustings.

But Vijay cannot be ignored. It is crucial to monitor Vijay’s performance in the political arena. We cannot make any informed assessments of his impact and effectiveness at this point. Until we have more data on his engagement and reach, it would be premature to endorse any speculative narratives or discourses about his political persona or the extent of his influence and how that will affect the prospects of the Dravidian parties [the AIADMK and the DMK].

After being in power for three years, the DMK managed to score a remarkable win in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. But does that mean Tamil Nadu will be willing to re-elect them in 2026 as well? What about the anti-incumbency factor?

The 2019 Parliament election, the 2021 Assembly election, and the 2024 Parliament election—all three clearly signified the return of the DMK to electoral politics in Tamil Nadu after facing... losses in the 2011 and 2016 Assembly elections, as well as the 2014 Parliament election. The reversal of those defeats and the resurgence of the DMK must be understood in three contexts: an effective leadership, political stability, and the ideological rejuvenation of the party under Stalin.

But the DMK has been criticised by opposition parties and other commentators about its record on governance, law and order, corruption, and women’s safety.

Issues such as law and order, corruption, and the safety of women are central to any electoral contest. We should not dismiss these concerns; instead, we must seek ways to address them, regardless of which party is in power. Pragmatically speaking, the current DMK administration is perceived as more secure and stable, largely due to the evident impact of its social welfare schemes. The DMK is also viewed as a party and a government that will fight for the State’s aspirations and rights. The people of Tamil Nadu have historically been concerned about their State’s rights, including language, identity, culture, and Centre-State relations. This context explains why the anti-incumbency factor is not such a significant challenge for the DMK in the [upcoming] election.

AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami and PMK president Anbumani Ramadoss with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, among others, in Chengalpattu, on January 23, 2026. | Photo Credit: R. RAGU

The AIADMK-BJP alliance has strong backing from the BJP-run Union government. Also, DMK Ministers face corruption allegations and scrutiny from agencies like the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate. Do you believe that despite this, the DMK’s emphasis on Tamil pride and language will give it an edge?

It is unrealistic to expect that corruption can be entirely eradicated from the DMK just as it cannot be eliminated from any other political party. The DMK, in particular, is grappling with corruption allegations against a few senior Ministers. This represents a significant liability for the party and affects its public perception.

Nonetheless, it is crucial to recognise that the DMK continues to maintain a competitive edge primarily due to its strong narrative on cultural identity, linguistic pride, and federal issues. These topics resonate deeply with the electorate and help sustain the party’s relevance and support.

What are the challenges the AIADMK is facing today? There seems to be something amiss in its alliance dynamics and a sense of unease among the alliance partners. Could the BJP’s “super boss” behaviour be causing discontent?

The main issue in the AIADMK is the absence of charismatic leaders like its founder, M.G. Ramachandran, and Jayalalithaa. The party lacks a unifying leadership despite Edappadi K. Palaniswami becoming the general secretary in 2023 with the support of the overwhelming majority of party members. The lack of unity among various second-rung leaders and the party’s excessive reliance on caste pockets for votes have broken the trust of its supporters, who long to see a unified and strong leadership. The BJP has made certain that the AIADMK remains confused and divided because it wants the AIADMK leaders to fall in line with its dominant presence.

Will the DMK’s narrative of Tamil Nadu versus New Delhi gain traction?

This narrative is a lasting legacy of the Dravidian movement and has always been the DMK’s stance against dominant Central governments and ruling parties. The only change today is the BJP taking the place of the Congress at the Centre. The issue is essential to the relationship between the Centre and the States, as well as to the functioning of federalism in India. It plays a crucial and dynamic role in India’s democracy. Since 2014, it has become increasingly important for the DMK to counter the dominant Hindutva politics of the BJP and its narratives about the nation, religion, and politics. This is especially important in a State that has been traditionally averse to majoritarian politics.

Chief Minister M.K. Stalin at a meeting of DMK district secretaries, in Chennai, on March 16, 2026. | Photo Credit: x/@Udhaystalin/ANI

Will Dalits vote for the DMK alliance en masse as they did in the 2021 election? If not, why not, and where might the DMK have faltered in its delivery of social justice?

The Dalit vote bank is significantly influenced by the alliance between the DMK and various Dalit parties and leaders across the State, particularly the VCK [Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi] led by Thol. Thirumavalavan. Politically and ideologically, Dalit votes are mobilised against dominant Hindu castes, with allies being a critical factor. This is why the DMK needs to retain the VCK as part of its coalition.

What will Vijay’s impact be, particularly among new voters aged 20 to 30 and among women? He is seen as being very popular among these two demographics.

It is anticipated that Vijay’s influence will be particularly strong among the youth [rather] than with older age groups. This is largely due to his cinematic appeal, which often resonates with younger voters seeking change. However, there are concerns regarding his lack of a clear ideological vision and a robust, policy-driven message. These shortcomings may result in disengagement of educated youth and women. Vijay’s political strategy requires refinement, especially on vision and policies, to resonate more.