There is no first-mover advantage for any political party in Kerala’s Assembly election because the percentage of floating votes is very small. Majorities are won or lost on thin margins. But this election is unique, as there is no clarity on the future course of the war in West Asia and its aftermath.

What does a distant war have to do with an Assembly election in Kerala? Nearly 30 lakh Malayalees live and work in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and form an influential group in Kerala both politically and socially. Political parties in the State are trying to rework their campaigns to include this group. Most of the “Gulf Malayalees”, as they are known, travel to Kerala often and have voting rights in the State. Kerala was also the first State to set up a separate Ministry for the welfare of its non-resident workers.

For now, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the CPI(M), is focussing on one individual—Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan—ahead of the election.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has moved on to candidate selection and is banking more on candidates with individual appeal rather than pinning its hopes on a central figure with star power.

The third force in the State, the BJP, is still trying to figure out a strategy beyond its limited Hindutva appeal.

LDF strategy

The LDF won an unprecedented second term in 2021, and anti-incumbency is now at an all-time high. But there is surprisingly very little negativity against the Chief Minister, according to several polls. So, despite the CPI(M) believing in collective leadership and in the wisdom of its State and central committees, the party, much out of its own character, is projecting its leader. CPI(M) MP John Brittas believes that the LDF will win because of the efficient and clean governance it has given so far. In a post on X, he said: “Kerala does not want to return to the dark era of UDF rule marred by power struggles and internal strife. Let us continue Kerala’s development journey together.”

The post shared a LDF promotional video featuring the actor Bhavana, known for her resilience and courage, who is held up as a symbol of dignity and the unyielding pursuit of justice. The irony here is that the party that did not find space for former Health Minister K.K. Shailaja in the second Pinarayi Vijayan Cabinet is trying to win back the female vote by using another young woman icon.

The CPI(M)’s Modi-style strategy of “projecting the leader” may have been deployed somewhat prematurely. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi waited until the campaign’s silent period to do his widely discussed interview with the actor Akshay Kumar, Vijayan’s team opted to do something similar with the Malayalam film star Mohanlal, but did it quite early in the campaign.

Given Mohanlal’s reputation as an accomplished actor capable of handling any brief, the Vijayan-Mohanlal interaction did not acquire the awkward tone that critics associated with the Modi-Akshay Kumar interview. This was also because Vijayan appeared relatively at ease with both the camera and Mohanlal. Even though the conversation itself did not seem overtly staged, in Kerala it was widely recognised as an election-eve exercise in political messaging.

The CPI(M) had to resort to a leader-centric campaign because of the opposition line-up. Both Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah are spearheading the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) campaign. With massive access to a variety of resources, from data to money, the NDA campaign is managed by strategists and Sangh Parivar elements who have details right up to the street level in each constituency.

Congress’ star power

What the Congress does not have in terms of finances, it makes up for with its two leading campaigners: Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. As a former MP from Wayanad, Rahul has a grasp of the State’s politics. As a serving MP from the same constituency, Priyanka’s understanding of the State has improved significantly. Both are expected to spend a good number of days in Kerala in the run-up to the election. In fact, a Congress leader said that Rahul Gandhi might keep his Tamil Nadu engagements to a minimum and focus more on Kerala and Assam.

But the Congress has always been a divided house, and this time it is no different. V.D. Satheesan, Leader of the Opposition in the Kerala Assembly, and Ramesh Chennithala, the party patriarch in the State, are moving in different trajectories.

Another person looking for some relevance within the party is Shashi Tharoor, the prodigal who has not embarrassed the party in the past few months. A fourth but very important leader is K.C. Venugopal, general secretary (organisation) of the Congress. More importantly, he has Rahul Gandhi’s ear. There are several other young contenders too.

As if the State Congress did not have enough problems, at least a few senior leaders who are MPs wanted to enter the fray because they believed the UDF was well placed to win the election and they could become Ministers. The names of Kannur MP K. Sudhakaran and Attingal MP Adoor Prakash did the rounds. After the All India Congress Committee made it clear that sitting MPs would not be allowed to contest this election, an initially defiant Sudhakaran told mediapersons on March 19 that he would abide by the party’s decision; at least two other Congress MPs also backed off.

How communities vote

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the LDF saw its vote share nosedive to just over 33 per cent, while the NDA’s vote share surged to nearly 20 per cent and it won its first-ever Lok Sabha seat. It was the UDF that was way ahead with over 45 per cent.

Demographically, Hindus form a majority in as many as 13 districts, while Muslims dominate one district, Malappuram, and have a significant presence in the northern districts, collectively referred to as the Malabar region.

The sizeable Christian community is a decisive factor in central Kerala. They used to traditionally back the UDF, but in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, they moved towards the BJP. Recent events, however, including the attack against Christians in some States, especially Manipur, have brought them back to the UDF fold, according to some Congress leaders.

The LDF’s biggest worry has been the fact that the trend seen in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when the UDF stormed ahead to win 18 of the 20 seats and the LDF won only one seat, held during the local body elections in 2025 as well. Here, the UDF won a handsome 38.8 per cent of the votes and bagged some important corporations that it had never controlled earlier. The LDF, which won only 33.45 per cent of the aggregate vote, claimed that local issues had affected the election. The front still maintains that voters will behave differently during an Assembly election.

The BJP made some gains, mainly because the LDF and the UDF did not come together in municipalities such as Palakkad, where the combined numbers could have overwhelmed it. Overall, the BJP-led NDA’s vote was near the 15 per cent mark. In 2024, its prominent candidate, the film star Suresh Gopi, won from Thrissur after cutting into both UDF and LDF votes. It had improved its vote share on the back of star power then, but could not hold on to the gains in the local body elections.

Given these numbers, each front is keen to portray that the other two are in cahoots. For anyone from outside Kerala, alliance chatter can be very confusing because the Congress and the CPI(M) are in the same INDIA bloc at the national level but are rivals in the State. The BJP uses this to drive home the point that the fronts led by both these parties are colluding with each other.

Salvos and counter-salvos

The BJP State president Rajeev Chandrasekhar said: “For the CPI(M) and Congress alliance, politics is about grabbing power and protecting their families. When we say randalla, onnaanu [they are not different but the same], it is not just a slogan. It is a simple and undeniable truth... Kerala deserves better than this cycle of Congress plus CPM exploitation.”

However, Rahul Gandhi claims that the real alliance is between the CPI(M) and the BJP. He has repeatedly asked why Central agencies, which have taken action against opposition leaders across the country, are hesitating when it comes to proceeding against Vijayan. According to him, Modi “controls” the Chief Minister of Kerala.

While delivering a speech in Thiruvananthapuram in early March, Rahul Gandhi said: “I have got 36 cases against me. I have been interrogated by the ED [Directorate of Enforcement] for 55 hours continuously. Why has the ED not taken any action against the Chief Minister or his family? The reason is, they are working together. In fact, in Kerala, it’s no longer the CPM and BJP. It’s CJP. Everybody knows that they are partners.”

Rahul Gandhi’s jibe is related to the gold smuggling case, in which officials in the Kerala Chief Minister’s Office were summoned for questioning, as also the Sabarimala gold theft case, which the Congress claims has the CPI(M)’s fingerprints all over it.

The ruling LDF has categorically stated that the theft happened during the UDF regime. Both alliances have been trading charges and countercharges in both scandals.

Former Kerala Finance Minister and CPI(M) ideologue Thomas Isaac took strong exception to Rahul Gandhi’s speech. “On what basis is he accusing the CPI(M) of allying with the BJP or demanding that the ED interrogate our CM?” he asked. Turning the tables on the Congress, he said: “Whenever the BJP has won a seat in Kerala, it was with the connivance of the Congress.”

Isaac said that the UDF’s promises for Kerala do not have any actionable plans, and hence the Congress is desperate to attack the LDF. “Rahul Gandhi says that once voted to power in Kerala, the UDF will address the unemployment problem. Not good enough. He has to place his plan before the voters. The LDF has laid out a plan and has started implementing it.”

Worries over situation in Gulf

However, these allegations are not the real showstoppers in this election; it is West Asia. Of the 30 lakh plus workers from Kerala in the GCC countries, more than 38 per cent are in one country, the UAE, which has been facing a daily barrage of missiles and drones from Iran.

While the sudden shortage of LPG across the State and the prospect of costlier petrol and diesel are the bread-and-butter issues occupying the minds of ordinary Malayalee households, concerns over the safety of Kerala’s workers in the Gulf, the possibility of job losses in West Asia, and the broader implications for the State are the other major worries.

These issues have got the BJP on the back foot. Unlike most other States, Kerala is 100 per cent literate and understands regional shocks and geopolitics better than most of the country. The people of the State also understand that most of the issues coming up now will need long-term strategy and planning on the part of the Central government.

It does not help the BJP’s case that the Union Budget presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had nothing for Kerala even though Suresh Gopi, a Minister of State, announced just a day before the Budget that Kerala would get multiple projects.

For more than a month after the Budget was presented, social media was filled with memes derisive of the Modi government and its representatives in Kerala.

The Kerala Story 2

The release, just ahead of the election, of Kerala Story 2, a movie that depicts Kerala in a poor light and casts Muslims as villains, has added to the BJP’s woes. While Hindu-Muslim polarisation is a pet BJP theme, as is being articulated every day by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, it does not go down well in Kerala. Both the UDF and the LDF have made the propaganda film a campaign issue.

Even before the start of formal campaigning, these events have forced the NDA to rework its election blueprint even as the LDF is pushing its “LDF 3.0” avatar. For the UDF, which is fighting with all it has, it may be the end of the road in Kerala if it fails to come to power this time.

On March 15, the Election Commission of India announced that Kerala would have a single-phase election on April 9. The counting is almost a month later, on May 4.

Soon after dates were declared, two LDF constituents announced the names of candidates. The CPI(M) announced candidates for 81 seats (including 6 Independents) while the CPI announced the names of 25 candidates. Among the candidates are several CPI(M) candidates who have been granted exemption from the internal party rule that limits back-to-back tenures for elected offices such as that of MLAs and MPs to two consecutive terms. Vijayan and Shailaja are among those granted the exemption.

The Congress, however, where infighting is intense, was caught in a bind and could not even agree on a seat-sharing formula with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).

Observers say this is an election that the UDF has a very good chance of winning, provided it is able to put its house in order.

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