Mamata Banerjee, the maverick and mercurial Chief Minister of West Bengal and one of the few political leaders in the country to have repeatedly stopped the BJP juggernaut, will face her toughest test ever in the upcoming Assembly election. Although her party’s position remains strong, Mamata may have good reason to be more than a little worried. The main source of her concern, more than allegations of corruption and misrule, is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in the State. In this election, thus, the Trinamool’s fight is not just against traditional political rivals but also a nameless, faceless opponent in the form of the SIR, which resulted in the deletion of 61.7 lakh names from the rolls. The names of more than 60 lakh citizens are “under adjudication”.

The Trinamool Congress is well ahead of the BJP, its nearest opponent, in both vote percentage and number of seats (in the Assembly and the Lok Sabha). Yet, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, there were around 89 Assembly segments where the vote difference was less than 10,000. In a sizeable number of these segments, the number of deletions in the SIR is higher than the vote difference.

A notable example is the Bhabanipur Assembly seat, Mamata’s constituency in south Kolkata. In 2021, she won with a margin of 58,832 votes. Yet the Trinamool could manage a lead of only 8,291 votes from this Assembly segment in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. As many as 47,000 names were deleted from the constituency in the SIR exercise. Over 14,000 are under adjudication..

“I will win from Bhabanipur even if by only one vote,” Mamata declared after the deletions. That she needed to assert what for so long has been a foregone conclusion may indicate a nagging worry. The SIR has practically thrown to the wind all calculations based on earlier electoral results, making it impossible to make logical inferences.

An exultant BJP claimed that the SIR not only removed from the rolls all the “non-existent” voters allegedly used by the Trinamool to maintain its victory margins in previous elections but also illegal immigrants (mostly Muslims) from Bangladesh who were supposedly the ruling party’s vote bank.

The Trinamool, which has been opposing the SIR right from the start, has alleged that the Election Commission of India, at the behest of the BJP’s central leadership, has targeted legitimate citizens in order to defeat the Trinamool by underhand means. Mamata’s protest has turned the subject of the SIR into a fight for citizens’ rights and has become the central issue in the upcoming election.

Attention diverted from corruption allegations

Her stand has also successfully diverted attention from long-standing allegations of corruption and misrule against her party and explosive issues such as the School Service Commission recruitment scam, the ration scam, and the rape and murder of an on-duty doctor at R.G. Kar Medical College & Hospital in August 2024.

Mamata even sat on a dharna in central Kolkata for four days after the final SIR list was released proclaiming that this was a “fight for the democratic right of every voter, irrespective of their religion, language, or party allegiance”.

Linked to the Trinamool’s fight against the SIR is its movement to uphold Bengali “asmita” (dignity), particularly with regard to Bengali migrant workers, mostly Muslims, being labelled “Bangladeshis” in BJP-ruled States and, in some instances, forcibly “pushed back” into Bangladesh.

The BJP has countered by saying that Mamata’s anti-SIR movement is a “desperate attempt to protect her vote bank”. Addressing a large public meeting in Kolkata on March 14, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “The Trinamool does not want the voter list to be rectified in order to retain the names of the illegal immigrants... they even want to retain the names of the dead.” Modi framed this as the Trinamool not viewing “Hindus as part of its vote bank”..

In an attempt to bring the issue of corruption back into focus, Modi spoke of the allegations against the Trinamool, the lack of law and order in the State, misutilisation of funds, and the State government’s tardiness in implementing Central projects.

He alleged that the Trinamool was in some way or the other connected with every heinous crime committed in the State. “The TMC openly stands with offenders… in Bengal, which was once the most progressive State, today, mothers tell their daughters to return home before it gets dark,” he said. 

It also remains to be seen whether the BJP has put too much stock in the SIR. While the roll revision will no doubt affect the ruling party, the BJP cannot hope to remain totally unscathed either. There are numerous constituencies, particularly in the Matua-dominated belts and north Bengal, where deletion of names may spell trouble for it.

Moreover, the exasperation of common citizens at the harassment caused by the SIR exercise may also alienate a section of the voters from the saffron party. The acute shortage of cooking gas that followed soon after did not help, and the Trinamool was quick to use it against the Centre.

SIR and the Muslim vote

The SIR may ultimately help the Trinamool hold on to the bulk of the Muslim vote, which has time and again seen the party through during tough times. The maximum number of voters whose names have been deleted and put under adjudication are from Muslim-majority constituencies, mostly in the districts bordering Bangladesh.

If Bengal’s Muslims, constituting over 30 per cent of its population, were showing signs of disenchantment with the Trinamool government and looking for the alternatives that emerged in the form of Humayun Kabir’s newly formed Janata Unnayan Party and the Indian Secular Front formed by the influential Muslim cleric Abbas Siddiqui, the SIR has more or less ensured that the minority vote remains with the Trinamool.

The increasing polarisation of Hindu and Muslim votes will be a factor in this election. The rise of communal politics in the past 15 years has served both the Trinamool and the BJP well in Bengal, creating a political binary in which other parties like the CPI(M) and the Congress have been pushed to the periphery of the narrative.

Of late, Mamata has been trying to shrug off her perceived image as a proponent of Muslim appeasement by going on a temple-building spree. A recent controversial statement from her, however, once again betrayed her reliance on communal polarisation as a political strategy. Warning people to not vote for the BJP, she said: “You are safe if we are here.... If one community decides to get together, it will take one minute for them to finish you off.”

The comment, which drew widespread criticism, assumes particular significance in the light of the recent communal flare-up in Muslim-dominated Murshidabad, where Hindu families were seen leaving their homes and taking shelter in neighbouring districts.

Again, on the day the election dates were announced, Mamata announced on social media that monthly honorariums for Muslim muezzins and Hindu priests would be increased by Rs.500.

The Trinamool’s perceived pro-Muslim stance may have enabled a consolidation of Hindu votes for the BJP. Yet, Mamata’s numerous cash-transfer welfare schemes, particularly for women, have allowed her to hold on to a sizeable section of Hindu votes, particularly those of women.

The Trinamool’s advantages

In this year’s budget, Mamata has not only increased the dole amounts but also introduced new ones, including a stipend for the unemployed. The BJP has promised that these amounts will be increased if it comes to power and claimed that it will ensure that people have jobs rather than an unemployment dole. It remains to be seen whether beneficiaries will choose to be content with a bird in hand or be swayed by the promise of two in the bush.

Apart from its superior organisation, the Trinamool has certain traditional advantages over the BJP, which has been struggling in this election as well to overcome the perception that it is essentially a “non-Bengali” party that has little to do with Bengal’s traditions and heritage. Although there are more homegrown leaders in the State BJP now, the party still requires Modi and Amit Shah to get crowds into rally fields and announce important decisions.

The “Bengali versus non-Bengali” clash comes through in the Trinamool’s “Joy Bangla” or “Joy Durga” cry that counters the BJP’s “Jai Shri Ram”. Equally, Ram as a deity has still not been integrated into Bengali culture whose imagination is ruled by Durga and Kali.

Moreover, the repeated gaffes made by the BJP’s leaders when invoking Bengal’s cultural and religious icons betray their lack of acquaintance with Bengali society and provide the Trinamool with ample new handles to attack the party.

However, it cannot be denied that there is a groundswell of anti-incumbency sentiment against the Trinamool, and the BJP believes it has a strong chance this time, especially given the impact of the SIR and a probable consolidation of Hindu votes.

Yet, Mamata has time and again shown that by dint of sheer will and tenacity she can claw back from the brink and emerge victorious. If the BJP wants to snatch Bengal from her grasp, it is in for a tough fight.

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