With the campaigns for Assembly elections in Assam, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal gaining momentum even before polling dates are announced, the Congress, the largest party in the INDIA coalition, faces a reality check, with the strains within the alliance beginning to show.

For Rahul Gandhi, the strains are becoming personal. Already facing flak from the party’s old guard, he now finds himself further cornered as allies begin to flex their muscles.

On February 23, Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin projected his father and Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, M.K. Stalin, as a national leader. It raised eyebrows when he said in no uncertain terms: “M.K. Stalin is a leader who guides not just Tamil Nadu but the entire country. Several opposition leaders across India believe that a democratic battle against the BJP must be led under M.K. Stalin’s leadership.” It was clearly more than filial enthusiasm or mere bravado.

Putting his weight behind Stalin, the Congress veteran Mani Shankar Aiyar, a one-time close associate of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, also said that Stalin is best suited to be the convenor of the INDIA bloc. Explaining his rationale, he said: “A smaller partner in the saddle would be a better assurance of alliance unity than a dominant one.”

Aiyar, who is under fire from the relatively younger crop of Congress leaders for his “I am a Gandhian, I am a Nehruvian, I am a Rajivian, but I am not a Rahulian” remark, however, added a caveat to his pitch: “Rahul Gandhi can become the PM of India provided there is somebody to spend all his time consolidating the INDIA bloc.”

Why Stalin’s name is doing the rounds

It was Stalin’s call on March 1, 2023, to all political parties to float an anti-BJP front with the Congress’ leadership that triggered a series of actions that finally led to the formation of the INDIA bloc in June the same year.

While Aiyar’s remarks have been dismissed by the current crop of Congress leaders as mere blabber by a sulking and sidelined leader, the assertions by others, especially Udhayanidhi, cannot be dismissed as lightly.

Interestingly, however, Stalin immediately responded by saying: “I know my limits.” This suggests two things. First, Stalin does not want the leadership issue to jeopardise the alliance with the Congress. Second, even as he is keen to preserve ties with the party, he is equally determined to signal that he remains the unquestioned authority in Tamil Nadu and that the national party’s pressure tactics over power-sharing in the State will not work. (Following the pattern seen in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election, the Congress has grown more assertive in Tamil Nadu in recent months, seeking more seats.)

The Congress, which has been demanding over 35 seats, seems to have mellowed a little, while the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which was initially willing to allot 27 or 28 seats, is also now in a reconciliatory mood. In 2021, the Congress was allotted 25 seats.

But it may not be wise to see the issue from the perspective of seat sharing alone.

Mamata Banerjee a strong contender

Aiyar, while pitching Stalin as INDIA convenor, has also batted for Mamata Banerjee as an alternative, going to the extent of saying that the alliance will be gone without Mamata.

“Mamata is the leader of this alliance. Along with her, there are two or four others who can achieve this position.... I hope that instead of trying to remain in this position, which belongs to smaller parties—be it Stalin, Mamata didi, Akhilesh, Tejashwi, or someone else—Rahul Gandhi should let them handle it,” Aiyar said, elaborating further in various media interactions.

In December 2024, six months after the Lok Sabha election and six months before the Bihar Assembly election, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav too had said that Mamata could lead the INDIA bloc.

Lalu Prasad had also asserted that the Congress’ opposition to the idea would not make any difference to his position and insisted that Mamata be allowed to lead the INDIA bloc. His son Tejashwi Yadav’s response was more nuanced. He said: “[I have] no objection to any senior leader of the INDIA bloc, including Ms Banerjee, leading the coalition.”

This was in response to Mamata herself expressing dissatisfaction with the functioning of the INDIA bloc and, in a television interview, indicating her willingness to lead the alliance if given an opportunity. She had said: “I formed the INDIA bloc, now it is up to those leading the front to manage it. If they can’t run the show, what can I do? I would just say that everyone needs to be taken along.”

Uddhav Thackery, president of the Shiv Sena (UBT), and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut have also said that their party was open to the idea of someone outside the Congress leading the INDIA bloc.

“If we want to further strengthen the alliance, everyone is willing to discuss leadership—it could be Mamata, Uddhav Thackeray, Lalu Prasad, Sharad Pawar, or Akhilesh Yadav,” Raut had said. He even went to the extent of saying that former Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, whose party, the Biju Janata Dal, is currently not part of the alliance, could be included in the conversation.

Such sentiments were expressed after the crushing defeat of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the 2024 Maharashtra State election too (the MVA includes the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT), and the NCP [Sharad Pawar]). In fact, Sharad Pawar had showered praise on Mamata’s leadership credentials, saying: “She is a capable leader. The MPs she has sent to Parliament are hardworking and aware.”

After a number of leaders from the INDIA bloc backed her, Mamata told the media that she was indebted to everyone for the respect they had showed her and that she wanted them as well as their parties to remain a part of the INDIA bloc on good terms.

With the West Bengal Assembly election due in three months, the clamour for Mamata as the face of the INDIA bloc is growing louder. Sanjaya Baru, former media adviser to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, suggested in the second week of February this year that Mamata should be the INDIA coalition’s prime ministerial face for the 2029 Lok Sabha election.

He added that like the Sonia Gandhi-Manmohan Singh arrangement, the Rahul Gandhi-Mallikarjun Kharge combo has not helped the Congress check the rise of the BJP. Interestingly, Rahul Gandhi has no official role in the INDIA coalition. He is the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and is a member of the all-powerful Congress Working Committee.

Congress President Kharge was made the convenor of the INDIA coalition months before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, a decision that did not sit well with Nitish Kumar, whose Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), was still a part of the INDIA coaltion then.

Baru, explaining his pitch for Mamata, also said that an opposition alliance led by a woman political leader, that too one who symbolises independent womanhood, can make a dent in the BJP’s more recently acquired women’s vote base.

Why the Congress may not budge

However, the appeal of regional leaders of the INDIA coalition is limited to their respective States. Besides, none of these regional parties seems to have the potential to win more Lok Sabha seats than the Congress. Even at its poorest showing, winning just 44 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha election (52 in 2019 and then substantially better at 99 in 2024), the Congress’ tally was much higher than the number of seats won by any regional party.

If the Congress did not give up its claim for the leadership role in 2019, there is no reason why it would do so before the 2029 Lok Sabha election.

Besides, regional parties are not united behind any particular name for national leadership. In January 2024, when JD(U) leader K.C. Tyagi blamed the Congress for Nitish Kumar’s exit from the INDIA bloc, he claimed that Mamata was made to propose Kharge’s name as the prime ministerial face of the alliance. He claimed that the Congress party wanted to steal the leadership of the opposition alliance “through a conspiracy”.

Leaders from all the regional parties have at one time or another projected their leader as best suited to be the prime ministerial candidate. Their inability to come together to project one regional leader before elections is something that still places the Congress in a stronger position to lead the coalition.

Although the string of defeats in State Assembly elections (Maharashtha, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi, and Bihar) has eroded the Congress’ authority somewhat, it had something to cheer about after the second consecutive victory of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led INDIA coalition in Jharkhand in 2024 and its improved relationship with the Samajwadi Party (SP) after the good show by the SP-Congress alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

There is also immense pressure from a section in the Congress to go it alone, shunning regional parties and the INDIA coalition. However, the Congress leadership is against the idea. There is a high probability that the Congress will attempt a tie-up with the SP in Uttar Pradesh in 2027 even though both parties contested separately in 2022 after the poor performance of their alliance in the 2017 Assembly election.

Rahul Gandhi still enjoys support

This March, SP chief and former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav backed Rahul Gandhi over his statement inside Parliament on border security, saying that raising issues of border and national security is the duty of elected representatives. In November last year, he backed the Congress leader’s allegations of vote theft.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly election, the RJD blamed the Congress for the opposition’s failure, but in 2025, all the allies in Mahagathbandhan (the alliance of non-BJP parties in Bihar) failed almost in equal measure against the National Democratic Alliance. Despite the Congress’ blow hot and cold relationship with the DMK, the national party is conscious of what the Dravidian party brings to the table. So is the DMK at a time when the BJP is attempting a larger coalition of parties in Tamil Nadu.

Complaints about the lack of strategic direction in the INDIA bloc have indeed surfaced from time to time. After the Bihar results in December last year, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister and National Conference leader Omar Abdullah said that the INDIA coalition was on “life support” and that it was struggling to function as a united force against the BJP’s strong election machinery. He also regretted that Nitish Kumar was “pushed” towards the NDA. The Shiv Sena’s mouthpiece Saamana had also emphasised then that the leadership issue in INDIA must be settled immediately.

However, three months later, Abdullah put up a strong defence of Rahul Gandhi and was dismissive of the leadership row in the INDIA coalition. He asked what Rahul Gandhi lacked as a Leader of Opposition in Parliament. He also reminded Gandhi’s detractors that he was the only one who consistently targeted the BJP. On February 24, Akhilesh Yadav, too, asserted that the INDIA bloc was “intact” and called for action against those who were trying to divide it.

Clearly, then, despite the occasional sparrings, both the Congress party and the regional stalwarts have their reasons to stay together. Within the Congress, there is hardly any overt challenge to the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, irrespective of whether he heads the party officially or not. However, neither the Congress nor Rahul Gandhi can take things for granted if the party fares poorly in the Kerala Assembly election (where Aiyar has predicted the return of the Left Democratic Front government for the third time in a row, saying the Congress State unit is badly divided), or if it fails to improve its tally in West Bengal where its alliance with the CPI(M) in 2021 came a cropper. This time the Congress has announced that it will contest solo in West Bengal.

Assam is another State where the Congress will have to perform strongly as the BJP is hoping to score a hat trick of wins here (of 126 seats in the State, the Congress won 26 and 29 seats in the 2016 and 2021 elections respectively).

As such, this round of Assembly elections could shape the terms of engagement between the Congress and its regional allies and, by extension, determine who leads the alliance: whether it remains under the stewardship of Rahul Gandhi or shifts towards regional leaders such as Mamata, Stalin, Akhilesh Yadav, or others. The question of leadership within the INDIA coalition is, therefore, not merely about personality or ambition. It ultimately hinges on who can deliver electoral victories and thus command political leverage.

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