Election time in West Bengal has always been one of joy and celebration, with the sound and colour of campaigns enhancing the secular festive spirit of “vote puja”. But this year, there is fear, anger, hurt, and bewilderment among a large section of the public, particularly in the Muslim community, all over the State. Lakhs of people who thought themselves to be citizens of this country suddenly found themselves either disenfranchised or bracketed among a huge number whose citizenship is “under adjudication” following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls.

For the past month, after the final SIR list was released by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on February 28, they have remained in a state of helpless confusion. Apart from the 63.66 lakh names that were deleted from the rolls, more than 60 lakh voters were placed “under adjudication”, including many who claim they are legitimate citizens and profess to have submitted all the necessary documents. On April 7, when the final supplementary list, following judicial scrutiny, was brought out, around 27 lakh names from the adjudication list did not pass muster. Thus, more than 90 lakh names were removed from the voters’ list.

As the election draws near, nowhere was the pain and confusion more acutely seen than in the faces of the people of Bhagawangola, an Assembly constituency in Murshidabad district that is situated near the Bangladesh border. Out of more than 2.6 lakh voters in the constituency, 1,06,000 voters were placed “under adjudication”, and around 14,000 names were deleted. More than 80 per cent of the residents in Bhagawangola belong to the most impoverished section of society, eking out a living as migrant labourers. They claim they have all the necessary documents. Many are bewildered that within the same family, some members were either deleted or “under adjudication” and some were not.

Amjad Hossain (75), a resident of Charlabangola village, right at the Bangladesh border, lamented that for the first time in 50 years he would not be able to cast his vote. “I have been voting since before Morarji Desai was the Prime Minister. My sons have their names on the list, but not me,” he told Frontline. In the case of his neighbour Haq Bajrul, it is just the opposite. Bajrul’s name is on the list but his sons are “under adjudication”.

Confusion in Murshidabad, Malda

It is the same story all over in the two Muslim-majority districts of Murshidabad and Malda. The process of deletion appears to have been so arbitrary and irrational that, alongside the dismay and outrage, there is a general suspicion that a particular community has been targeted for political purposes.

In Jotkabil village, under the Mothabari Assembly constituency in Malda, Nurul Islam (name changed at his request), a retired army pensioner, found his name in the list “under adjudication”. Speaking to Frontline, he said: “I was in the army for 28 years, and I had submitted all my documents, including my passport. I’m of SI [Sub-Inspector] rank, and I gave all my army documents, including PPO [Pension Payment Order], pension book, but still, my name is under adjudication. I don’t think they even checked our documents.”

His wife's and daughter’s names are on the list. The number of voters in Jotkabir is a little over 1,000, of which 495 names were either deleted or placed “under adjudication”. The villagers claim that it made no difference that they had all the required documents. The residents of Mothabari staged protests on the streets, and on one occasion, they even forcibly detained judicial officers, and an investigation by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) is on in the matter.

Mir Hasnat, a doctor and veteran social commentator, who recently joined the newly formed Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) in Baharampur, told Frontline: “There was no problem with the first list of permanent deletion of 58 lakh names; but the problem started when they came up with the idea of ‘logical discrepancy’ and put lakhs of names ‘under adjudication’.”

According to Dr Hasnat, the ratio of Muslims to others in the adjudication list is 5:1. “These things were done on the basis of precise calculations aimed at helping the BJP win in the coming elections.” The SIR issue has become the central point in the State election, particularly in the minority belts.

Importance of the Muslim vote

The Muslim vote has always been a crucial factor in Bengal politics. According to the 2011 Census, the Muslim population in the State stood at 27 per cent. In 2025, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee herself said that it now stood at close to 33 per cent. She was quick to realise the importance of securing the minority vote.

In 2006, the Sachar Committee report highlighted the abject socio-economic conditions of Muslims in Bengal. In the 2011 Assembly election, in the wake of the Left Front government’s forcible acquisition of agricultural land for industrial purposes, the Muslims voted overwhelmingly for change, resulting in the end of the Left’s 34-year rule and Mamata’s Trinamool Congress coming to power. In the last 15 years, the Muslim voters have stood firmly behind Mamata, ensuring comfortable victories for her in both Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

With the BJP emerging as the main opposition in the State in 2019, securing between 38 and 40 per cent of the votes, predominantly Hindus, the Muslim vote has become all the more crucial for Trinamool to survive. But Mamata’s various moves to retain the support of the Muslims, be it granting of stipends to imams and muezzins or often sharing the dais with prominent Muslim clerics, sometimes even allowing them to interfere in government and administration matters, gave rise to the perception that her government was following a policy of minority appeasement. To counter allegations of appeasement, she began to give generous grants to clubs during Durga Puja, and also went on a temple-construction spree.

In the last couple of years, there have been signs within the Muslim electorate of growing disenchantment with Mamata. Even though she secured the bulk of the Muslim votes in 2021, an analysis of the 2024 Lok Sabha election in the three Muslim-majority districts of Murshidabad, Malda, and Uttar Dinajpur clearly indicates that there was a perceptible shift in the Muslim support away from Trinamool.

Past performance

In the last Assembly election, Trinamool won 35 of the total 43 seats in these three districts (20/22 in Murshidabad, 8/12 in Malda, and 7/9 in Uttar Dinajpur); but in the 2024 Lok Sabha election it trailed in 16 of the 35 Assembly segments it had won in 2021 (5/20 in Murshidabad, 8/8 in Malda, and 3/7 in Uttar Dinajpur). The opposition also managed to narrow the gap considerably in five Assembly segments where Trinamool had earlier won convincingly, namely Jangipur, Raghunathganj, Beldanga, Burwan, and Goalpokhar.

Sarful Haq, a resident of the Malatipur Assembly constituency in Malda, said that most of the people of the region feel betrayed by the Trinamool government, and now believe that her protests against the BJP’s actions are just a political eyewash.

“She protested against the Waqf Bill, but she implemented it; her party said that it would not allow the SIR to take place, but she facilitated it by sending her people to help with the process. Finally, she has failed to grant OBC status to Muslims even after 15 years in power. People today are not as gullible as before,” said Sarful.

Moreover, Mausam Benazir Noor, who belongs to the family of the legendary Congress leader from Malda Ghani Khan Chowdhury, has returned to the Congress fold from Trinamool, and political observers are interpreting this as a sign of the ruling party’s weakening hold in the district. Mausam is contesting from Malatipur, a Trinamool seat, where the Congress secured a big lead of 15,921 votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Although Malda has traditionally been a Congress bastion, in 2021, the grand old party could not win a single seat of the 12 seats there; eight went to the Trinamool and four to the BJP. Noor believes that this time the situation will change. She told Frontline: “We are very hopeful. In 2016, when I was the district president, we won around 9 seats. We are expecting the same kind of result again. Congress is definitely going to make a comeback in 2026.”

She pointed out that during crucial times like the implementation of the Waqf Act, the Muslims of Bengal got no support from the Trinamool government. “Mamata Banerjee always claims to be the protector of Muslims, but when the Act was being implemented, she told the protesters to take their agitation to Delhi. Apart from that, there is a woeful lack of development, and a polarised atmosphere that is being encouraged by both the Trinamool and the BJP. People are fed up, and the vote that went to Trinamool in 2021 will be returning to the Congress.”

Can SIR save Mamata?

In the prevalent situation, the SIR seems to have come as a godsend for Mamata to once again try to unite the Muslim vote in her favour. She seized upon the opportunity as soon as the SIR process was started, hit the streets, sat in a dharna, and even donned a lawyer’s cloak to appear before the Supreme Court against the ECI’s implementation of the SIR. Of all the political leaders opposing the BJP, Mamata’s protest was the loudest and the most sustained. In fact, SIR was the main issue for the Trinamool for the 2026 Assembly election; so it would not be surprising if her staunch stand against the SIR ultimately yields electoral dividend.

In Charlabangola village under the Bhagawangola constituency in Murshidabad, Halim Sheikh and his six brothers are “under adjudication”, although his parents and his sister’s names are on the list. He claims that his father was a retired employee of the Railways, who had been working “from the time when the Railways salary was just Rs.3,000”.

Halim believes that the people of Bhagawangola will vote overwhelmingly for Trinamool, in spite of the lack of development in the region and the high-handedness of members of the ruling party. “Even if family members of a government servant are denied voting rights, think of the common people. This Assembly constituency will vote overwhelmingly for Trinamool. Even Congress supporters will change allegiance. If BJP comes to power, there will be nothing left of us,” Halim told Frontline.

Similarly, in Charkrishtopur village on the banks of the Padma river, Atikur Sheikh pointed to the abysmal living conditions of the villagers. He and most of the other residents live in fragile thatched houses. They claimed that only those close to the ruling party get pucca houses funded by the government.

“The people are unhappy with the government; but still we will vote for Mamata, because now we are scared,” said Atikur. As Dr Hasnat succinctly summed it up: “If the Muslims vote for Trinamool again, it will be with great reluctance, and only for the purpose of keeping the BJP out.”

The SIR issue seems to have further cemented the binary created by the BJP and the Trinamool, driving deeper the wedge between Hindus and Muslims in the State. Haq Bajrul said with a trace of bitterness that Bangladeshi Hindus have got citizenship, but “we who are original citizens of this country are being questioned”.

Enter Humayun Kabir

To further add to the already communally polarised atmosphere, there appeared a new twist just four months ahead of the Assembly election. Humayun Kabir, the controversial former Trinamool MLA from Bharatpur in Murshidabad district, caused a political storm by laying the foundation stone for a proposed Babri Masjid on December 6, 2025, in the communally sensitive Beldanga area.

He broke away from the ruling party to form his own AJUP, and, forging an alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), he pledged to oust Trinamool from power and at the same time oppose the BJP.

Humayun’s actions and the enthusiasm for the Babri Masjid turned out be yet another headache for Trinamool. Amid the rise of communal violence, especially the violence in Dhulian in Murshidabad in April, 2025, in which hundreds of Hindu families living in Muslim-majority areas reportedly fled in fear to neighbouring districts, the BJP is looking at a consolidation of Hindu votes. This makes it all the more important for Mamata to retain her hold on the Muslim electorate. There are at least 130 constituencies where the Muslim vote is a deciding factor.

Speaking exclusively to Frontline, Humayun said: “In the constituencies where the Muslim population is between 30 per cent and 82 per cent, I have fielded 109 Muslim candidates, and AIMIM has fielded 10. Those Hindus whom Mamata Banerjee has been trying to appease for the past five years will not be voting for her either.” He had earlier criticised Mamata for “taking Muslim votes and constructing Hindu temples”.

Humayun claimed that his alliance will win 12-13 seats in Murshidabad alone. He has projected himself as a kingmaker of sorts. “Neither will the BJP cross 100 seats, nor will Mamata be able to cross 75. Humayun Kabir with over 100 seats will be the deciding factor in the days to come,” he said.

Humayun’s most vitriolic attacks have been levelled at Trinamool rather than the BJP, and he has been relatively quiet on the SIR and the huge number of Muslim names that have been deleted from the electoral rolls. Therefore, it comes as little surprise that many observers in political circles, including Trinamool, have accused Humayun and Owaisi of being a Trojan horse working for the benefit of the BJP.

In many Muslim-majority constituencies, AJUP has undoubtedly made the fight tougher for Trinamool, particularly in places where the Hindu population is relatively high.

Interestingly, in Beldanga, where Humayun is planning to build his Babri Masjid, the Hindu population is just a little below 40 per cent. In spite of getting a huge following in the region, Humayun chose to not contest there. One of his own party members admitted to Frontline, on the condition of anonymity, that ironically, the BJP has a strong chance in Beldanga now. There are several seats across the state where AJUP and the Indian Secular Front (ISF), founded by the influential Muslim cleric Abbas Siddiqui, may queer the pitch for the ruling party and give the opposition a fighting chance.

While both the BJP and Trinamool have gained from the binary created through the mandir-masjid politics that is dominating Bengal right now, it still remains to be in whose favour the SIR factor will work.

The SIR will not go entirely the BJP’s way, as the saffron party had hoped. Although it is likely to hurt Trinamool more, the BJP will not go completely unscathed as it too has lost many voters from its stronghold in the Matua belt. Besides, the apprehension and aggravation caused by the SIR exercise have also alienated many who were earlier antipathetic towards Trinamool and were leaning towards the BJP.

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