West Asia remains fraught. The US is unable to bully Iran into submission. Equally, the US itself is firmly under Israel’s thumb, with “the world’s most powerful man”, Donald Trump, unable to rein in the maniacal Benjamin Netanyahu, who, with all eyes on Iran, is overseeing the appropriation of more and more land in the West Bank, Gaza, and now Lebanon. I personally do not see a full and fair peace in this region in the near future, but the immediate effects of the situation on the global economy are worrying, with India not immune to the shocks and, in fact, woefully underprepared for it.

Despite its energy security being highly import-dependent, India has not diversified its sources enough; about 50 per cent of its oil comes from West Asia and about 30 per cent from Russia. This puts India in a bind: the war has interrupted the former pipeline while the US dictates the latter. It also has only a 74-day petroleum buffer; compare this with 245 days in Japan, another oil importer. Equally, e-vehicle migration has been too slow: India has 1 charging point for about 235 EVs with ~8 per cent EV penetration, while China has 1 charger for 7-9 EVs and ~45 per cent penetration.

Add this lack of preparedness to existing structural fault lines such as high unemployment and reverse migration caused by recurring urban crises, and you see why the slowdown is worrying and why it might prolong. In parallel, there might be other fallouts, such as a weakening of the dollar economy and perhaps a rethinking of the neoliberal order, with some indications that economists and countries are looking at the possibilities of state-led transformation for more equitable growth. Three eminent thinkers, Ashoka Mody, Radhika Desai, and Ashwini Deshpande, explore these ideas in our current issue.

Meanwhile, on the day I write this, Assembly elections are being held in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal in an atmosphere vitiated by the Election Commission of India’s stark negligence of its primary duty: to conduct “free, fair, and peaceful elections”. Its lapses are compounded by the Supreme Court shrugging off its responsibility as the “ultimate guardian of the Constitution”. Both have instead become extended arms of the executive. That is why the Prime Minister is able to convert “an address to the nation”, an instrument that heads of state use to convey the gravest of news to citizens, into a partisan political harangue. That he does so when election campaigns are ongoing in two States is a gross breach of the Moral Code of Conduct. Let me quote from Section 7, which is directed at the “Party in Power”. It says: “... misuse of official mass media during the election period for partisan coverage of political news... with a view to furthering the prospects of the party in power shall be scrupulously avoided.”

Over and above this violation, let us examine the Prime Minister’s speech itself, for address it was not. He repeatedly claimed that the Women’s Reservation Bill was defeated on April 16. Fact: It was the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill that was defeated. He repeatedly claimed that the opposition was against women’s reservation. Fact: The Women’s Reservation Bill was passed unanimously in September 2023. The Prime Minister used the Hindi word “bhrun-hatya” to describe the Bill’s defeat. The word means foeticide, and is mostly used for female foeticide. In similar vein, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath called the defeat “cheer-haran”, which means stripping off a woman’s clothes. The use of such terms reveals a mentality that performs empowerment but practises misogyny. Four days earlier, with a similar grand disregard of facts, BJP Minister Piyush Goyal had said in Pudukottai that the DMK had “ruined Tamil Nadu”, especially pointing to healthcare and infrastructure. Fact: Tamil Nadu ranks No. 2 in the NITI Aayog Health Index. And stays steadily in the Top 5 in roads, power, SEZs, capex on infrastructure, and logistics.

The truth is, no fact-checking can keep pace with the speed at which the BJP’s functionaries spread half-truths and innuendoes. For this government, facts are tripwires to its ideological goals, so it does not acknowledge them. Just as it refuses to acknowledge, and therefore work towards solving, the looming economic crisis. But the warning lights are blinking.