Ukraine’s drone strikes on key Russian oil-export outlets in the Baltic and Black seas may put India’s crude-refining operations at risk in the near future, according to the International Energy Agency.
Last year, 80% of Russian crude imports to India originated from three major ports — Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk — that have recently become regular targets of Ukrainian drones, the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report published Tuesday.
“Any prolonged disruption to Russian port availability could significantly affect Indian refining operations in the coming weeks,” according to the report.
Since the war in the Middle East began, India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, has faced energy shortages, surging prices and the prospect of slower economic growth. Russian oil flows have become a lifeline for the South Asian nation’s refiners, while alternative barrels, including from Iran, have had limited success, in part because of concerns over suppliers and other intermediaries.
India emerged as a key buyer of Russian crude after the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine as western nations banned purchases of Moscow’s barrels. Last year, US President Donald Trump began applying tariff and sanctions pressure on India to cut Russian imports.
However, as the Iran war roiled the market, the US issued a waiver allowing New Delhi to resume Russian oil purchases. Imports from Russia averaged 1.98 million barrels a day in March, the highest since June 2023, according to data from intelligence firm Kpler.
“In March, twelve Indian refineries processed Russian crude, compared with seven in February,” the IEA report said.
The 30-day waiver expired on April 11, yet several Asian nations including India are pushing the US Treasury Department to renew it, according to people familiar with the matter.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has been relentlessly striking key Russian energy infrastructure — from ports to pipelines and crude refineries — to reduce the Kremlin’s windfall profits from the global oil rally.
The strikes have caused infrastructure damage and disrupted operations at the three major ports, which, according to IEA estimates, accounted for nearly 60% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports prior to the attacks.
While the ports have resumed loadings, the volumes originating from Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk remain limited, according to the IEA and data compiled by Bloomberg.
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Published on April 14, 2026