When Donald Trump announced ‘Operation Project Freedom’, aimed at “guiding” stranded merchant vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, he warned that any interference from Iran would be dealt with “forcefully”. Over the previous weeks, Mr. Trump had issued several ultimatums to Tehran to reopen the waterway, which it closed after the U.S. and Israel launched the war on February 28. As Iran refused to budge, Mr. Trump launched the operation to militarily reopen the strait. But it lasted barely 50 hours. Iran responded by firing at two American destroyers in the strait and attacking a UAE tanker off Oman’s coast. The UAE, a close strategic partner of both the U.S. and Israel, also said it was attacked twice. With the ceasefire coming under strain amid hostilities, Mr. Trump, on Wednesday, said he was pausing the operation “at the request of Pakistan”. While Mr. Trump continues to make sweeping claims about winning the war, the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — and that the operation to reopen it did not last even three days — points to a very different reality on the ground. The U.S. not only failed to achieve any of its declared objectives during the 40 days of war, but is now grappling with a crisis created by the war itself — the closure of the strait.

Unlike Mr. Trump, who has made several self-contradictory statements since the war began, Iran has remained consistent in its demands. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said last week that Iran would “protect” its missile and nuclear capabilities and continue to exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran appears convinced that the war has strengthened its hand and that time is on its side. Mr. Trump has made a series of miscalculations. In the first week of the war, he said he would accept nothing short of Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. But as the conflict dragged on, he started demanding a deal. Both sides agreed to a ceasefire on April 8, but the U.S., which imposed a blockade on Iranian ports on April 12, failed to exact any meaningful concession from Iran. Contrary to his rhetoric, he holds few strong cards in this war of attrition. If the crisis persists, it will inflict lasting damage on the U.S. and the global economy, potentially endangering Mr. Trump’s presidency. If he resumes the war, Tehran will retaliate by targeting Gulf kingdoms, which would be catastrophic for the global economy. America is not winning this war. No amount of social media threats or military posturing is going to alter that reality. Washington should recognise this and pursue a deal with Iran based on accommodating mutual demands and reciprocal concessions if it wants to avoid pushing the world economy towards the precipice.