The month of May has brought a summer of discontent to the Opposition camp. The defeats of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) supremo M.K. Stalin and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee, together with the Congress’ political realignment in Tamil Nadu, have cast an uncertainty over the future of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc.

Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi’s presence at Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief C. Joseph Vijay’s swearing-in as Tamil Nadu Chief Minister effectively formalised the Congress-DMK rupture.

The Congress framed its backing of the TVK as an effort to block the BJP and its “proxy”, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu. Yet, the message got complicated as 25 newly elected AIADMK MLAs supported the Vijay government in the trust vote.

“There is an Opposition alliance in Parliament and DMK is very much a part of it even now. We are in regular touch with them,”a senior Congress leader told The Hindu.

But the developments in Tamil Nadu exposed the unease with INDIA bloc allies, reflected in an X post of Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav. 

“We are not the ones who abandon each other in times of difficulty,” Mr. Yadav posted on X.

The Congress’ conundrum: regional parties within the INDIA bloc expect a strong Congress at the Centre to take on the BJP, but want it to remain a marginal player in the States when they are strong. That is perhaps why the break-up with the DMK reflects its realisation that long-term growth cannot come at the cost of permanent subordination.

Congress leaders argue that the BJP has grown in several States, often at the expense of its regional allies, but the reverse has happened to them.

“In Bihar, our alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal is not on equal footing. For years, the Congress has been carrying the baggage of the RJD’s poor governance in the State even though we were not part of the government,” Congress veteran Kishore Kumar Jha told The Hindu.

When TMC chief Mamata Banerjee suggested the creation of an anti-BJP front of political parties, NGOs and civil society activists folllwing her party’s shocking defeat in Bengal, Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Choudhury hit back, saying, “There is no strength left in the TMC now, so they are seeking support from everyone.”

Mr. Gandhi too sent out mixed signals. While he expressed solidarity with the TMC chief immediately after the Bengal poll results and accused the BJP of committing “vote chori” in Assam and Bengal, he also claimed that only the Congress can stand up to the BJP.

“This is a battle of ideologies. You will see that, in the end, no other party can stand up before them [BJP],” he said at a public rally on May 8 in Gurugram, adding, “Only the Congress can defeat the [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi-Shah [Home Minister Amit Shah] government”. 

That is likely to be a long term project, as the BJP, much like the Congress once did, occupies the central pole of Indian politics, forcing regional parties either into accommodation or resistance. 

In comparison, the Congress has little presence left in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, weakened in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat, and decimated across its former Northeast strongholds, including Assam.

“It doesn’t matter how long we take, but we must rebuild ourselves as the alternative pole in national politics,” Mr. Jha said.

The Congress’s challenge ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha polls may ultimately lie in balancing two competing objectives: rebuilding itself as a national alternative to the BJP while retaining the trust of regional allies.