Chennai is likely to become hotter and wetter over the next 14 years, with summer maximum temperatures projected to rise by 1°C and southwest monsoon intensity expected to increase by 12%, according to a new climate projections report released by Azim Premji University on Thursday.

The report, Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021–2040, warns that climate change is no longer a distant threat and India’s coastal regions are already entering a period of significant environmental transition. Using high-resolution 25x25-km climate data, the study maps district-level changes expected between 2021 and 2040 against a 1960s baseline.

Besides Chennai, Nagapattinam district is projected to receive 20% more rainfall during the northeast monsoon, while coastal communities in Rameswaram and Thoothukudi districts are already experiencing disruptions linked to changing wind patterns and rising sea temperatures, the report said.

Across India’s coastline, average temperatures are projected to increase by about 1.5°C by 2040, with nearly 40 coastal districts likely to record summer temperature increases exceeding 1°C. Coastal districts in Tamil Nadu and Kerala are also expected to experience wet-bulb temperatures approaching 31°C, levels considered dangerous to human health.

The report highlights multiple climate risks facing coastal India, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, intensified rainfall, and stronger cyclones fuelled by warming seas. Under a moderate emissions scenario, global sea levels are projected to rise by around 15 cm by 2050, increasing the threat to vulnerable coastal settlements and ecosystems.

Sea-surface temperatures are also rising rapidly, increasing the likelihood of intense tropical cyclones. The study said warming seas were already affecting traditional livelihoods, from fishing communities coping with shifting fish stocks to coastal industries dependent on stable marine conditions.

Speaking at the report’s release, Santonu Goswami, School of Climate Change & Sustainability, Azim Premji University, said the findings underlined the need to rethink infrastructure and governance systems to prepare for climate impacts that were expected within the next decade and a half.