Was the Census deliberately delayed?

Sanjay Kumar: The Census should have taken place in 2021, but that was the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since everything was stalled in 2020 and we were under a strict lockdown for a good part of that year, the Census could not take place.

Do you see any political reasons for the further delay? Do you think the government wanted to time it with the delimitation exercise, which is frozen till 2026?

Sanjay Kumar: I don’t have an explanation for this delay. The pandemic was over by mid-2022. By the end of 2022, universities had opened, schools had gone back to a normal routine, and everyone had started going back to office. The delay for nearly three years after that is frankly inexplicable. I’m not sure why the government did not take the initiative earlier. I don’t think it is because of the delimitation exercise, because every time delimitation takes place, the exercise uses the previous Census data. So the government could have began conducting the Census in 2023 as well. Even if it did start conducting the exercise in 2025, it would have made no difference to the work of delimitation.

Can you tell us about the implications of a delayed Census?

Poonam Muttreja: The delay has serious consequences for governance and development. India continues to use Census data from 2011 data in 2025. The ground reality has changed dramatically since 2011. Population growth, internal migration, urbanisation, and fertility patterns have all accelerated/changed. But policy continues to run on outdated assumptions. The delay effects nearly every sector. School enrolment projections are inaccurate. Vaccine coverage targets have missed the mark. Social welfare programmes such as PDS (public distribution system) and MGNREGS (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme) cannot adjust to the actual population needs. The delay also affects disaster preparedness and infrastructure planning.

This is going to be the first digital Census in India. Are there any concerns about that?

Poonam Muttreja: Digitisation can bring in efficiency, reduce manual error, and allow faster data processing. But a fully digital Census also risks excluding the very people who are the hardest to reach, such as those in rural households and informal settlements, those belonging to marginalised communities, and women. They may not have smartphones, stable electricity, or digital access. Take women, for instance — only 33% of rural women use the Internet. Among women in low income households, mobile phone ownership is significantly low. A ‘digital first’ approach without safeguards could reinforce the existing gender bias.

To succeed, this Census must retain door-to-door in-person enumeration, especially in areas that are difficult to access. The enumerators must be trained to work with diverse populations in regional languages and have an inclusive approach. Technology should support, not replace, the human engagement that is essential for collecting accurate data.

The government is yet to announce any decision regarding the National Population Register (NPR), which is the first step towards the creation of a National Register of Citizens (NRC). In the 2021 Census, it was planned to be updated with the first phase of the Census. Do you think if the two are combined — the NPR and population Census — it may impact the process because of the controversies and fears around the NPR?

Sanjay Kumar: If you are trying to do one piece of work and then you combine it with other work, there is a possibility of both getting tampered with. Things could get delayed, jumbled, and some information could get misrepresented.

But do you see the Centre not going ahead with the NPR so that the Census is done in a hassle-free manner?

Sanjay Kumar: I would be in favour of getting the Census done separately because we should not forget that this is being undertaken after a very long time — 16 years! This is the first time that caste enumeration is also taking place as part of the Census. So a new element is already there. Why overburden the enumerators?

How difficult or easy will it be for the government to collect data on caste? In the Socio-Economic and Caste Census of 2011, around 40 lakh caste names were thrown up. There were instances of people writing their surnames instead of their community names. It was based on self-disclosure. What methodology do you think the government should follow to make the process robust?

Sanjay Kumar: If we are raising questions about caste data, we can raise questions about the collection of other information as well. If people can answer questions about their assets, age, gender, and education, why should there be any difficulty in answering questions about caste?

But yes, training is important. If we are able to train our enumerators well, the respondents will be able to answer most of the questions. The enumerators need to know that Varma, for instance, is a surname, not a caste. If a respondent mentions this surname as their caste, the enumerators will have to ask a follow-up question.

Poonam Muttreja: Asking about a person’s caste is not going to be difficult. The UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government conducted a caste census nearly a decade ago, but never released the data. I think homework needs to be done well when we collect data on caste. Enumerators must understand all the caste sub-categories. Unless they themselves are well informed, they are not going to be able to deal with erroneous answers or inappropriate answers.

Why do you think Census is important for a country?

Poonam Muttreja: The world is changing rapidly and so many things are uncertain. In such a scenario, the Census is the most important aspect to consider in not only planning and policymaking, but also in the allocation of resources. It helps us understand how climate change is impacting us, changing population dynamics, and patterns of digitisation. In India, to understand the rapid increase in urbanisation and migration patterns, we need numbers. We also know that India is an ageing society. The number of aged people is going to nearly double in the next 20 years. You can’t let people age and then start planning. So given the rapidly changing environment, planning, allocation of resources, targeting the poor and targeting those who are marginalised are all objectives. In fact, the whole purpose of having a caste census is to invest in the most marginalised communities.

Do you think the government should consider reducing the 10-year period for conducting the Census so that we can have faster and more accurate data about these changes in society?

Sanjay Kumar: Conducting the Census is a tedious, time-consuming process. It cannot happen overnight. The Census is not merely about counting the number of people. The government’s policy formulation depends on the information collected during a Census. The large amount of information gathered is valuable for the government to implement various kinds of policies. We may feel that the government can do this every five years, but it is more appropriate to do it every 10 years. But we should make sure that the Census takes place on time and there is no break in between.

Listen to the conversation in The Hindu Parley podcast