The sweeping changes in the Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal State Assemblies as a result of the recent elections are also set to alter the composition of the Opposition benches in the Rajya Sabha, with the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam likely to debut in the Upper House in the next round of polls expected in mid-June.

If AIADMK MP C. Ve. Shanmugam, who won from the Mailam Assembly constituency in Tamil Nadu, resigns from his Rajya Sabha seat, then TVK could enter Parliament earlier than anticipated. Mr. Shanmugam told The Hindu that he will take a decision on the matter in the next couple of days. If he choses to resign from the Upper House, then the election for his seat could be held along with 22 other seats from eight States that are due to go to the polls in June. Considering the TVK’s strength in Tamil Nadu Assembly, it should be able to win the seat.

Left setback

The biggest setback will be for the Left parties. In April 2027, three Kerala MPs are retiring: the IUML’s Abdul Wahab, and the CPI(M)’s John Brittas and V. Sivadasan. The Left Democratic Front’s collective strength of 35 seats in the Kerala Assembly is one short of the required number to elect a Rajya Sabha MP. In April 2028, their strength in the Upper House is set to dip further when another three Kerala seats go to the polls, with the CPI(M)’s A.A. Rahim and CPI’s P. Sandosh Kumar among those retiring. Again, the Left is unlikely to have the numbers to get any of its candidates elected. CPI MP P.P. Suneer, who is scheduled to retire in 2030, will then be the last remaining Left MP in the Upper House.

The DMK benches will feel the impact in June 2028 when six MPs from Tamil Nadu are set to retire. Of these, three are from the DMK, two from the AIADMK, and one from the Congress. Considering the present Assembly elected on May 4, and the subsequent Congress pledge to support the TVK, the DMK is likely to return only one MP to the Rajya Sabha.

Delayed impact for TMC

For the Trinamool Congress, the first hit will be slightly delayed, coming in August 2029, when the next round of Rajya Sabha elections is held for West Bengal. Six members from the State, five from the TMC and one from the BJP, are set to retire, including the TMC’s Rajya Sabha leader Derek O’Brien. Based on its present strength in the State Assembly, the TMC will only be able to get one member elected to the Upper House.

The next round of attrition from the TMC’s benches is expected in April 2030, when four of its MPs will retire, reducing its strength to six until the next round of Assembly polls in the State. A senior TMC leader cautioned that these calculations would hold only if none of its sitting MPs switched sides. “Considering the political atmosphere, one can’t entirely rule out such a scenario,” the leader said.

Good news for Congress

Between the two rounds of Rajya Sabha elections this year, scheduled for June and November, the Congress will pick up three extra berths. In June, four MPs from Karnataka are retiring, including Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and JD(S) supremo H.D. Deve Gowda. The Congress is in a position to win three of these four seats, gaining two additional berths. This gain, however, will be neutralised by its loss in Gujarat.

The Congress is hoping that its ally in Jharkhand will concede the sole Rajya Sabha seat from the State that goes to the polls in June, and that it will gain another seat from Himachal Pradesh in the November elections. By the November, the Congress’s tally will go up from 30 to 33. The Congress will also increase its strength at the cost of the Left members in the Rajya Sabha in April 2027 and 2028.