Ethnic quagmires are among the most difficult situations for governments to untangle, given the violence and persistence of hostilities — even for those committed to restoring peace. The reason is the intransigent nature of ethnic divides, where hostile elements resist any efforts at normalisation. Any space for empathy is restricted as every incident is ethnicised. The situation is compounded when the government of the day fails to nip the descent into ethnicised hostilities in the bud, making it even more difficult for civil society and subsequent governments to restore peace and normalcy. This is the kind of situation that Manipur finds itself in. Even a relatively moderate Chief Minister such as Yumnam Khemchand Singh, who has sought — at least through nominal gestures — to rise above the ethnic fray, has found the going tough. Violence has flared up again following a bombing attack on April 7 that killed a five-year-old boy and an infant girl in Bishnupur district. Reports of the alleged involvement of a Kuki extremist organisation in bombing attacks – denied by Kuki groups – triggered a series of protests in the valley and renewed violence led to more deaths. With disinformation and rumour-mongering adding fuel to the fire, Manipur has returned to a cycle of violence and hardening stances among groups in its persistent ethnic quagmire.

The Bharatiya Janata Party initially believed that the resignation of former Chief Minister N. Biren Singh, efforts to curb violent ethnic organisations, and the passage of time would help restore normalcy. After a spell of President’s Rule, and in an apparent effort to promote a more moderate form of governance before elections are due, the BJP formed a new government under Mr. Khemchand Singh. However, the inadequate involvement of political leaders — including from the Union government — in a genuine peace-building exercise shows that the situation has not improved despite these nominal changes by the BJP. A more thoroughgoing carrot and stick approach, empowering civil society leaders willing to advance peace and punishing those promoting and engaging in violence, would have certainly helped. But political variables focused more on retaining power than achieving peace appear to have kept those seeking to advance hardline views in positions of influence on both sides of the divide. A more pro-active role by the Home Ministry and a genuine effort by the BJP to involve all political actors in easing tensions should help. This should be supplemented by a strategy that empowers security agencies to crack down on hardline elements engaging in wanton violence such as bombings. Short of these measures, Manipur will continue to convulse with recurring incidents of violence, reactions and reprisals.