As Tamil Nadu braces for the results of its Assembly polls, the two Dravidian majors — the DMK and the AIADMK — are keeping their fingers crossed to see whose votes the debutant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) eats into more. The entry of actor C. Joseph Vijay’s party is expected to throw up surprises.

A region-wise and margin-wise analysis of the last two elections, in 2016 and 2021, shows that the AIADMK, in the recently concluded voting for 2026, needs to not only retain its hold in the western region but also gain ground in the northern, central and Greater Chennai regions, which it had ceded to the DMK-led alliance in 2021, to get back to power. For this analysis, the parties have been grouped based on their alliances in 2026, and constituencies have been grouped based on the following regions.