Around 40 coastal districts in India, including Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada and Udupi, are likely to see summer temperatures rise by over 1°C by 2040, according to the newly released “Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021-2040” report released by Azim Premji University, Bengaluru.

According to the report, India’s average temperatures are projected to increase by 1.5°C, and the country’s coastal regions are facing an imminent climate crisis that will reshape lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems within the next couple of years.

The report also warns that the window for adaptation is rapidly narrowing as the 1.5°C warming threshold is expected to be reached across India’s administrative regions in the near future.

Impact on State’s coast

A consistent warming trend is expected with summer maximum and summer wet-bulb temperatures projected to increase by 1.1°C in Dakshina Kannada and Udupi.

In Uttara Kannada, the winter minimum temperature is projected to see the highest increase of 1.2°C, followed by a 1.1°C rise in the summer wet-bulb temperature. The annual maximum and winter minimum temperatures are also set to rise by a 1°C from their respective baselines in Dakshina Kannada and Udupi, and by 0.9°C and 0.8°C, respectively in Uttara Kannada.

Hotter and wetter

Precipitation data forecasts an intensification of both monsoon seasons in these districts, the report noted.

In Dakshina Kannada, the southwest monsoon, starting from a substantial 1,983 mm baseline, is projected to increase by 7%, and the northeast monsoon is expected to rise by 6% over its 243 mm baseline.  

Udupi receives the highest rainfall among India’s coastal districts during the southwest monsoon. It is projected to increase by 6%, starting from a massive 2,055 mm baseline. 

The northeast monsoon in the district is expected to rise by 10% over its 219 mm baseline. 

Uttara Kannada too looks at increasing precipitation trends. The southwest monsoon, starting from 1,539 mm baseline, is projected to grow by 8%, and the northeast monsoon is expected to a 13% rise over its 167 mm baseline.

Other highlights

The report aims to provide the foundational data necessary for local authorities to build district-level resilience. Other key findings of the report include dangerous summer wet-bulb temperatures in Coastal Kerala and Tamil Nadu, nearing the 31°C levels considered dangerous for humans.

Coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat will receive significantly higher rainfall with suburban Mumbai likely to experience nearly an additional week of heavy rain.

Rapid acceleration in sea surface temperatures (0.27°C per decade) is increasing the likelihood of intense tropical cyclones.

Imminent crisis

“Climate change is not some distant future challenge- it is the reality of today, and 2040 is just 14 years away,” said Anurag Behar, CEO, Azim Premji Foundation. “This dataset brings to life the impacts of climate change with much greater immediacy, highlighting how we must restructure our infrastructure and governance to ensure we collectively address this crisis.” 

Harini Nagendra, Director, School of Climate Change and Sustainability, Azim Premji University, noted that the findings highlight the immediate and hyper-local nature of the crisis for the Indian coastline.

“Whether it is the heat stress in Ernakulam or the rising salinity in the Sundarbans, our vulnerability is visible in all aspects of our daily lives. We have a short window of time to move from reactive mitigation to proactive adaptation- we need to craft a future that acknowledges the ecological challenges faced by our nation,” she added.