It is no surprise that the AIADMK, the principal Opposition party in the previous Tamil Nadu Assembly, is heading towards a split, having faced a second successive setback in the recent Assembly election, apart from several defeats in parliamentary elections. As of now, the 47 MLAs from the Dravidian major are divided over their support for the leadership of General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami, who was until recently the Leader of Opposition. On Monday, the two groups made written submissions to Pro-tem Speaker M.V. Karuppiah regarding their claims. Though there is no clarity on the strength of the two factions, the dissident group, led by former Ministers C.Ve. Shanmugam and S.P. Velumani, appears to enjoy the support of more legislators. This group has announced its decision to support the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) government; Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay, by visiting the office of Mr. Shanmugam and meeting him and his colleagues on Tuesday, has indicated where his sympathies lie. This appears to be part of Mr. Vijay’s political outreach, as he has met DMK chief M.K. Stalin and several other leaders in the past two days. It carries political significance, as the Chief Minister is due to move a trust vote in the House on Wednesday.

Unlike previous occasions when the AIADMK publicly announced the election of its legislature party leader and other functionaries, there has been no official announcement this time. However, the Palaniswami camp claims that at a May 9 meeting, all 47 legislators gave written consent to the effect that the former Chief Minister is the AIADMK legislature party’s leader. It also cites the Supreme Court verdict in the Shiv Sena case (May 2023), which held that “the political party, and not the legislature party, appoints the Whip and the Leader in the House”. As Mr. Palaniswami is also the general secretary, his supporters argue that there is no need to take cognisance of the other faction’s office-bearer announcements, given that he has appointed his nominee as the legislature party whip. The Palaniswami group also appears to be preparing to move the Speaker for disqualification of rebel legislators under paragraph 2(1)(b) of the 1985 anti-defection law, in case the dissidents violate the whip by voting against the government. One option for the Shanmugam-Velumani faction is to merge with the TVK if it secures the support of 32 legislators, similar to how seven AAP MPs in the Rajya Sabha (out of a total of 10 MPs) recently quit and merged with the BJP — which was approved by the Vice President and the Rajya Sabha Chairman C.P. Radhakrishnan. In the case of the AIADMK, Assembly Speaker J.C.D. Prabhakar may soon have to draw on his experience and legal advice to assess the merits of the two groups’ claims. Whatever he decides, the churn in Tamil Nadu politics is likely to continue for some time.