The principal Opposition party, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), is facing a unique situation.

Apart from encountering political offensive from the DMK, its traditional adversary, the AIADMK is experiencing a two-pronged attack — one from its former coordinator and now Bodinayakkanur candidate of the DMK, O. Panneerselvam, and another from its former interim general secretary V.K. Sasikala, who heads the All India Puratchi Thalaivar Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AIPTMMK).

While the former has addressed as many as 40 meetings in many areas of the southern region, explaining how he was “meted out injustice” at the hands of the AIADMK’s general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami, the latter, who has announced 80 candidates on behalf of her party, is set to commence her tour in Thirupparankundram on Tuesday.

Making use of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s birth anniversary to announce her decision of running a party of her own, the AIPTMMK general secretary, once an aide of the former Chief Minister, chose Kamuthi in Ramanathapuram district for the occasion. She played the victim card and blamed Mr. Palaniswami for having “betrayed” her.

Two reasons can be attributed to the focus of the present adversaries of the AIADMK in the south.

The party had always received generous support from the districts in its heyday. This could be seen from the fact that the organisation bagged 40 Assembly seats in 2001, when the region had a total of 63 seats, and 30-odd seats out of 58 on each of the occasions in 2011 and 2016.

The southern region is also known for the concentration of the Mukkulathor community.

Even in 2024, when the party faced the Lok Sabha election, its leadership was quite clear in keeping Ms. Sasikala and Mr. Panneerselvam, apart from the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhgam (AMMK) founder T.T.V. Dhinakaran, at an arm’s length.

However, Mr. Palaniswami has now revived his political ties with Mr. Dhinakaran by accommodating the AMMK within the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance.

Previous performance

A cursory look at the performance of the party in certain Assembly segments in the south in 2024 would reveal to what extent the party lost its following in a matter of three years (since 2021).

In respect of the Melur and Usilampatti Assembly constituencies, where the Dravidian major won five years ago, the AIADMK could secure just 39,123 votes in 2024, compared to 83,344 votes in 2021, and 24, 941 votes against 71,255 votes respectively. 

Even though the party did not win in Mudukulathur of the Ramanathapuram district five years ago, it had garnered 81,180 votes, which then reduced to 18,372 votes in 2024.

Views galore

M. Rajapandian, general secretary of the Nethaji Senai, who hails from Kovilpatti of the Thoothukudi district, and P. Manikandan, president of the Madurai District’s Wet and Dry Land Farmers’ Association, are of the view that the AIADMK may be hit by the campaign of Ms. Sasikala and Mr. Panneerselvam.

A seasoned politician from Virudhunagar contends that notwithstanding the degree of appeal the two leaders have on their community, the narrative being set by them is that unless Mr. Palaniswami is removed from the AIADMK’s leadership, the community would not get back the hold it had when Jayalalithaa was at the helm of affairs.

In this regard, many from the Mukkulathor community, with whom this journalist interacted in the southern region, point out how Jayalalithaa presented a golden armour to the bust of a prominent leader of the Forward Bloc, U. Muthuramalinga Thevar, in February 2014.

However, A.G.M. Sivagurunathan, a social activist of Virudhunagar, says that Ms. Sasikala’s decision might benefit Mr. Palaniswami indirectly, as her campaign could lead to the fragmentation of anti-Palaniswami votes. 

R.B. Udhayakumar, former Revenue Minister and the AIADMK’s candidate for Thirumangalam, emphatically says that people would not accept those who go against the “two leaves” [the party’s symbol], after having reaped benefits out of the organisation. 