Despite India’s vast diversity in terms of religion, language, and caste, nearly 80% of States are now ruled by the BJP, while the Congress governs only a handful of them. Are we moving from a multipolar political landscape to a more bipolar one?

Yashwant Deshmukh: Rather than counting how many States the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rules, the more important question is who the BJP’s principal opponent is in those States. In almost all major States, it is not the Congress but regional parties that pose the main challenge: the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in Jharkhand, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, Punjab and even Gujarat. Bipolarity exists in most States, but it is not necessarily BJP versus Congress. Bipolar contests have existed for decades; we have seen anti-Congress fronts in the past, just as we now see an anti-BJP front. The form changes, but the phenomenon is not new.

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K.K Kailash: The nature of the first-past-the-post electoral system incentivises parties to position themselves as one of two main contenders. At the State level, different combinations emerge, and when aggregated nationally, this creates a multiparty system. To defeat a dominant party, alliances form to prevent vote splitting. India’s diversity has not diminished; what has changed is which party is seen as representing it. In several cases, this has involved changes in party labels rather than voter bases, as seen in Arunachal Pradesh in 2016 when legislators shifted to the BJP. What appears to be bipolarity at the national level conceals a far more complex State-level reality.

Even with 240 seats, well short of a majority, and at the head of a coalition government, the BJP appears to be pursuing a strong, centralised governing model. Does this suggest that the era of coalition-driven governance is effectively over?

Yashwant Deshmukh: The BJP’s functioning at the Centre resembles the 2014 model. One might have expected greater pressure from allies, but that has not happened. This is largely because the BJP’s allies are deeply rooted in anti-Congress politics, making it difficult for them to shift alignments. I believe the INDIA bloc was structurally designed to fail in the long run. The collective tally of the INDIA bloc in 2024 is not significantly different from the Opposition numbers of 2014. The BJP’s runaway victories in 2014 and 2019 were primarily due to the Congress’s collapse. The Congress’s tally of 99 came largely from riding on allies like the DMK. The BJP’s reduced numbers reflected internal issues in States such as Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, not Congress’s growth. Non-Congress Opposition parties have consistently held their ground since 2014. It was the Congress’s weakness that dragged down Opposition totals. In 2024, the jump from 44 to 99 seats created the illusion of an Opposition revival. But regional parties had already reached saturation in their States. The DMK swept Tamil Nadu, Mamata Banerjee did the same in Bengal, and the Samajwadi Party checked the BJP in U.P.

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K.K Kailash: The BJP’s allies are primarily State-based parties focused on extracting benefits for their States. As long as these interests are served, they have little incentive to challenge the BJP’s centralised functioning. In earlier coalitions, a larger pool of regional parties could restrain the coalition leader. Today, allies lack the numbers to do so. This has enabled the majoritarian model seen over the past two years. Given a choice, neither the BJP nor the Congress prefer coalitions.

Does the defeat of the DMK and the Trinamool create space for the Congress to consolidate its position against the BJP?

Yashwant Deshmukh: Hypothetically, yes. The decline of regional heavyweights could create a vacuum that the Congress might fill. But the Congress is not positioned to do so. Even where the Congress and the BJP face off directly, the party struggles to hold ground. Leadership remains a major issue. After the May 4 results, four of five Chief Ministers were sworn in quickly; Kerala took time. Until Congress resolves its organisational disarray and leadership paralysis, it will not be able to replace the BJP.

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K.K Kailash: The defeat of the DMK and the Trinamool is not good news for the Congress. They weaken the Opposition’s collective strength and expose the Congress further in direct contests with the BJP. The Congress’s inability to occupy space vacated by regional parties strengthens the BJP’s narrative that there is no national alternative. A diverse Opposition with strong State-based parties provides broader resistance. Fragmentation only benefits the BJP.

The INDIA bloc has also shifted form — now we may see a new entrant, the TVK — how does this play out in the intra bloc rivalry?

Yashwant Deshmukh: The Congress’s decision to support Vijay has come as a great sign of relief for the BJP. The 27 Lok Sabha MPs and nine Rajya Sabha MPs of the DMK are now completely liberated from the Congress alliance. The DMK can now operate just like the way the YSR Congress or the BJD functioned in Parliament for the last 12 years. Even if Vijay joins the INDIA bloc, does he have any MP in the Rajya Sabha or Lok Sabha right now? One must remember that the DMK has previously worked with the BJP.

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K.K Kailash: The TVK is not bringing anything to the Lok Sabha till 2029. Now, even in 2029, I think a great deal depends on how the government in the State functions and whether the people still have confidence in them.

Given all this is there still a case to revive and strengthen the INDIA bloc ahead of the 2029 general elections?

Yashwant Deshmukh: Well, never say never in politics. Historically, the BJP is in a similar position as the Congress used to be. It too faced a strong united Opposition in 1967, 1977 and 1989. Can a similar position develop against the BJP? I believe that every other party barring the Congress has been delivering their 100% in order to win their States. The question still wrests on whether the Congress can get its rank and file in order. Can the leadership of the Congress actually start making some strategic decisions which would make the party seem like a viable alternative to the BJP? Without a structural revival within the Congress, even if their partners win big in their respective States, the INDIA alliance will remain weak at the centre.

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K.K Kailash: One key element missing from this discussion is what comparative studies tell us about legitimacy and delegitimisation. Whether it is an idea, a party, or a political formation such as the INDIA bloc, legitimacy is neither natural nor permanent. These are not inherent or fixed qualities. Political formations emerge at particular moments, shaped by specific contexts and circumstances. As those contexts change, so too do legitimacy and delegitimacy. There is no guarantee that alliances like INDIA will endure forever, just as there is no permanent right to legitimacy enjoyed by any party. Many parties and ideas have experienced both acceptance and rejection over time. The Congress, the BJP, and the DMK have all seen reversals. Ideas, too, go through cycles. The BJP’s current success rests partly on its alignment with what has come to be projected, or constructed, as a national consensus. But what passes for consensus today may not hold in the future. Generational shifts and changing social realities will inevitably reshape political alignments. A second point is about opposition. Those excluded from power, or seen as delegitimised, are not passive spectators. In a parliamentary and liberal democracy, opposition is inevitable and necessary. It cannot be erased or permanently shut out, and it will continue to adapt strategically. Even if the INDIA bloc does not endure, the idea of opposition will. I agree with the point that this moment is a wake-up call for the Congress. There is a broad agreement that the party needs internal revival, cadre building and clearer leadership. But that raises a final question: if everyone recognises this, and the Congress does not seem to be acting, does it know something that the rest of us do not?

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