Though the southwest monsoon arrived in Karnataka on June 4, the State has recorded an actual rainfall of 71 mm as against the normal of 109 mm for the period between June 1 to 18.

According to the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre’s (KSNDMC) June rainfall pattern, there has been a departure of -35%. Data for June 2026 so far shows that south interior Karnataka has received 44 mm as against the normal 48 mm, a departure of -6%, while north interior Karnataka has received 53 mm against 63 mm, a departure of -16%. Malnad and the coastal regions have recorded 89 mm and 191 mm, respectively, as against the normal 178 mm and 419 mm, reflecting departures of -50% and -54%.

Large excess to deficit

KSNDMC data further states that five districts — Bagalkot, Raichur, Ballari, Chickballapur and Tumakuru — received large excess rainfall. Twelve districts — Bengaluru Urban, Bengaluru Rural, Bengaluru South, Kolar, Mandya, Chitradurga, Koppal, Gadag, Dharwad, Belagavi, Vijayapura and Yadgir — received normal rainfall.

Meanwhile, deficit rainfall was recorded in 12 districts — Kalaburgi, Uttara Kannada, Haveri, Vijayanagar, Davangere, Udupi, Chikkamagaluru, Dakshina Kannada, Hassan, Kodagu, Mysuru and Chamarajanagar.

Two districts — Shivamogga and Bidar — received large deficit rainfall.

During this period, 17 taluks received large excess rainfall, while 24 and 66 taluks recorded excess and normal rainfall, respectively. The data stated that 103 taluks received deficit rainfall, and 30 recorded large deficit rainfall.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already said that the average rainfall for Karnataka during the southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be below normal.

According to the probability forecast for seasonal rainfall over Karnataka during the season, coastal Karnataka and south interior Karnataka are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, while north interior Karnataka is likely to receive below- to near-normal rainfall.

May intensify after June 21

IMD scientist C.S. Patil said the intensity of the monsoon would remain weak for the next two to three days, and is expected to “become intense” by June 21-22.

“There is a probability of 75% rainfall in coastal Karnataka, 50% and 25% in south and north interior Karnataka early next week,” he said.

Bengaluru city, which has for the past couple of days been witnessing a rise in maximum temperature (around 30-31 degrees Celsius) witnessed cloudy conditions on Thursday, while the maximum temperature dropped to 26.4 degrees Celsius.

The forecast for the next two days indicates a generally cloudy sky, with light to moderate rain likely and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) expected at one or two places.

The maximum and minimum temperature is very likely to be around 29 degrees Celsius  and 22 degrees Celsius respectively.