The Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on June 23, 2026 that the monsoon for this year had given rains that were 43% below normal for the month of June. A high-level meeting with his State-level counterparts was conducted to take preparatory measures and draw up contingency plans.

In this context, here are some key metrics to shed light on the monsoon’s progress, India’s agricultural characteristics and potential risks in the face of a lack of rains.

Monsoon progress

As of June 24, 2026, several States have recorded either deficiency or large deficiency in rains. This shortfall ranged between 20% to 81%. Rajasthan alone recorded an excess rainfall of 20%.

Irrigation

With a potential shortfall in rains, a look at India’s irrigation level can indicate water access for the kharif season. Overall net irrigated area as a percentage of net sown area has been increasing since 1950. As of 2023-24, 59.3% of net sown area is irrigated, with the rest being rainfed.

However, irrigated area by crop variety varies. Water-intense crops like sugarcane have high irrigation levels by area sown. On the other hand, pulses have lower irrigation levels and are mostly rain-fed.

The government, after the high-level meeting of State Agriculture Ministers, recommended farmers to switch from water-guzzling crops like sugarcane to crops like pulses that require less water for shorter duration as a way to handle lesser rains this year.

While pulses do not need access to water as much or as long as other crops like rice, wheat or sugarcane, kharif-season pulse crops like green gram require a single “life-saving irrigation” during the early pod formation stage, as per a NITI Ayog study. Moreover, the same study noted that “the prominence of rainfed agriculture, coupled with insufficient irrigation infrastructure renders pulse cultivation highly vulnerable to climate vagaries.”

However, while irrigation does play an important part in ensuring healthy pulse crop yields, farmers point to lower prices at harvest and high input costs as more pressing issues.

Reservoir levels

As per data from the Central Water Commission, reservoir levels in the five regions of the country varied from over 19% to over 32%. Except for the Southern and Eastern regions, these levels are in excess of what is normally stored in the reservoirs at this point of time in the year. However, in these two regions, the current reservoir levels are lower by over 14% and over 19% than normal, respectively.

State-level differences

A report from Care Edge Ratings showed that while at the national level, buffer stocks and decreasing significance of agriculture on total Gross Value Added might help soften economic impact, some States may be vulnerable due to a mix of low irrigation coverage, reliance on water-intensive crops and the share of crop-based output in agricultural Gross Value Added.

The ratings firm came up with an Index that is built on six measures -  (i) Irrigation coverage, (ii) Share of agriculture in overall GVA; (iii)Share of non-crop activities in agricultural GVA; (iv) Share of water-intensive crops (rice and sugarcane) in kharif output; (v) Average historical rainfall deviation from LPA; and (vi) Regional reservoir levels.

Based on these parameters, a weighted score was given from 0 to 100 for the States, with higher scores meaning higher resilience against monsoon variability.

The report noted that Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh are more vulnerable. These States are more exposed due to a combination of lower irrigation coverage, reliance on water-intensive crops and limited diversification into allied agricultural activities.