Even as domestic rubber prices continue their record shattering rally, Kerala’s plantation belt has responded with surprising caution, with growers largely adopting a wait and watch approach, instead of rushing to ramp up production.

According to the daily price bulletin of the Rubber Board, ribbed smoked rubber (RSS) grade 4, commonly known as sheet rubber, touched an all time high of ₹261 a kg on Wednesday. The previous best-price of ₹247 a kg was registered on August 9, 2024.

Board officials attribute the dramatic spike to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has disrupted crude oil supplies and, in turn, affected the production of synthetic rubber. However, with the peak production season in Southeast Asia set to begin soon, they expect prices to stabilise in the near term.

“The production levels are expected to rise significantly and, amid the uncertainty in the international market, major consumers such as the tyre industry may prefer to maintain only optimum inventory levels. So, a price stabilisation is likely soon. Still, prices may not fall back to earlier levels because synthetic rubber continues to remain expensive,” explained M. Vasanthagesan, Executive Director of the Rubber Board.

Yet, the board itself is not entirely celebrating the sudden price boom, despite the short term gains it promises for growers.

“This also means the consuming industry has to pay substantially more for raw materials, including MSME units in the non-tyre sector,” he pointed out. If manufacturers find raw material procurement unviable at these elevated rates, the industry could shrink in scale, a trend that may hurt the sector in the long run, he warned.

Meanwhile, traders who anticipated the rally are sitting on handsome inventories and reaping the benefits, while many smallholders are unable to cash in. Production has already tapered off since February, with the peak summer heat drying up latex flow in rubber trees. Traders are now pointing to an acute shortage of rubber in the market, as many farmers had already sold off their stocks when prices crossed ₹240 a kg.

“While farmers in the Malabar region are still holding on to stocks in anticipation of a further rise, most growers in southern Kerala have already sold out. Besides, many farmers in the south have shifted to selling latex instead of producing sheet rubber,” said a trader in Kottayam.

Farmers, on their part, also maintain that the soaring prices have not translated into meaningful gains on the ground, largely because of depleted stocks and spiralling production costs.

According to Babu Joseph, general secretary of the National Consortium of Rubber Producers’ Societies, growers are encouraged by the price surge, but mounting challenges continue to weigh heavily on the plantation sector. Rising input costs and an acute shortage of skilled tapping labourers remain major concerns.

“The West Asia crisis has pushed up rubber prices, but it has simultaneously escalated the cost of rain guarding in plantations. The price of rain guarding plastic has surged and availability itself is limited. At the same time, the cost of spray oil used against fungal diseases has tripled, wiping out much of the benefit farmers would otherwise have gained from the price increase,” he said.

At the same time, many growers are now shifting back to sheet rubber production instead of selling latex, lured by the widening price gap between the two.

With southwest monsoon expected to reach Kerala within the next three weeks, the plantation sector is now closely watching the skies. If the rain arrives on schedule and El Niño does not significantly disrupt weather patterns, rubber production in Kerala is expected to normalise in the coming months. Showers in the northeastern rubber growing belt, another major production hub, are also expected to boost output in the medium term.