STATE OF PLAY

Even though Tamil Nadu’s outgoing Chief Minister M. K. Stalin put on a brave face and said he would face both defeat and success with equanimity, his loss in the Kolathur constituency appears to have shaken him. As the leader of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), he campaigned across the State for his party, and had been confident that his own constituency was secure, having nurtured it like no other. He will go down in history as the fourth sitting Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu who has lost an election.

Constituencies represented by a Chief Minister typically attain VIP status by default. Kolathur, however, became Mr. Stalin’s second home, as he made it a point to visit almost every week. The constituency saw the development of hospitals, schools, flyovers, playgrounds, and colleges, among other facilities.

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Yet voters chose the candidate of the fledgling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), V. S. Babu, a former DMK leader and district secretary. Observers point to a shift in voting patterns among certain communities in the constituency, including Christians and Scheduled Castes, some of whom appeared to favour actor C. Joseph Vijay’s TVK.

Shift among Christians

This trend was not confined to Kolathur. In several constituencies across the State with a significant Christian population — traditionally seen as supportive of the DMK due to its strong anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stance — there appeared to be a shift in preferences. The decline in vote share for the DMK and its allies in districts such as Kanniyakumari, which has a substantial Christian population, suggests the alliance may have lost ground among these voters. In Killiyur, Congress candidate Rajesh Kumar, who had won by a margin of over 50,000 votes in 2021, saw his victory margin shrink to just over 1,000 votes this time. Other constituencies in the district witnessed a similar trend. A comparable pattern appeared in Kolathur, where some voters seemed to favour Mr. Vijay over Mr. Stalin, despite the Chief Minister’s continued engagement with the community, including organising annual Christmas events and extending financial support to certain churches.

Some voters framed their preferences in identity terms, expressing a desire for greater representation in leadership.

Apolitical Gen-Z

Beyond Kolathur, the DMK appeared to be struggling to connect with sections of ‘Generation Z’ or Gen-Z, whose political engagement tends to be more fluid and less tied to established party structures. Historically, the Dravidian movement has drawn significant strength from student mobilisation. In contrast, campus politics today appears far more subdued. Student unions are absent in many colleges, and even where they exist, they are often largely apolitical in character. The proliferation of engineering and professional colleges, along with a shift away from the humanities, has further contributed to the weakening of political engagement among students. For many students, the primary focus is on securing employment through campus placements, leaving limited space for sustained political involvement. The DMK leadership appears to be continuing to rely on an older political idiom, rooted in the rhetoric of the 1950s and 1960s, and often centred on emotive appeals, which may have limited resonance in today’s social media-driven campaign environment.

In contrast, Mr. Vijay’s campaign suggests that electoral success can, at least in certain contexts, be achieved without a deeply entrenched organisational structure or continuous engagement through traditional media, large-scale conferences, or expansive campaign spending. His approach points to the growing importance of alternative modes of outreach, particularly those that connect more directly with younger and digitally engaged voters. In many constituencies, voters did not know the candidates of Mr. Vijay’s party. They voted for him and his symbol, the ‘Whistle’.

Mr. Vijay’s victory has put an end to the bipolar politics of Tamil Nadu, hitherto dominated by the two Dravidian parties. The shift towards a three-cornered contest has created space for smaller parties as well as a party like the BJP, which has been making sustained efforts to establish a foothold. The TVK’s emergence may realign Tamil Nadu’s political equations more broadly.