The stepping down of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah marks the end of a chapter in Karnataka politics in the last two decades when popular leaders often had a mass appeal that defined the State’s political discourse.

The veteran leader, along with his one-time mentor former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, a towering Vokkaliga personality, and former Chief Minister and Lingayat strongman B.S. Yediyurappa, were seen as influential figures in the State’s politics with their sway running deep in their respective constituencies. Mr. Gowda has been in public life for more than six decades, and Mr. Yediyurappa completed five decades recently. Mr. Siddaramaiah’s political career spans 48 years.

Common factor

While Mr. Gowda, who still wields influence among the Vokkaligas, is not actively involved in the affairs of Janata Dal (Secular), Mr. Yediyurappa’s role in BJP has also diminished after his resignation as Chief Minister in 2021. All the three leaders have a common thread: They rose from grassroots politics, first elected to local bodies, came from humble background, did not have financial clout and their families did not have political background.

Though Union Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy is popular among the Vokkaligas, long time political observers believe that he has not quite elevated himself to the place of an undisputed leader of Vokkaligas. He remains popular in parts of Kalyana Karnataka region besides his reach in Old Mysore region. With the elevation of D.K. Shivakumar as Chief Minister, his popularity among Vokkaligas could also be challenged. Interestingly, the political oblivion of Mr. Yediyurappa has not resulted in emergence of any tall leader among Lingayats in the BJP or the Congress. In the OBC space, no leader is currently seen on the horizon to step into the shoes of Mr. Siddaramaiah.

In positions of power

“Largely Karnataka has a history of leaders emerging as popular mass leaders only after attaining position of power. That is true of Mr. Siddaramaiah, Mr. Yediyurappa or Mr. Kumaraswamy. The only possible exception to this is Mr. Gowda, who largely remained out of power and then emerged as the leader,” said Narayana A., a faculty at School of Development, Azim Premji University. He also acknowledged that currently there was no leader to fill in the vacuum left by Mr. Siddaramaiah in the OBC politics.

In the past too, former Chief Ministers S. Nijalingappa, D. Devaraj Urs and Ramakrishna Hegde, later seen as mass leaders, emerged popular only after assuming power. In case of Mr. Yediyurappa, the “betrayal” by JD(S) in a power sharing understanding led him to become the undisputed leader of Lingayats. Mr. Siddaramaiah, who was expelled for trying to organise the AHINDA group, became a powerful mass leader during his first term.

2028 scenario

According to a senior BJP leader, the next Assembly elections in 2028 could be interesting with the influence of these powerful leaders waning. The leader felt that it would also be difficult for the emergence of leaders in national parties without a strong trigger for communities to rally behind them. “Voters vote for a leader or his party only when they know he has a chance to come to power. None of these three leaders will be in the fray.” The leader said that there could be possibility of high command becoming stronger in the national parties in decision making in the days to come, including that of the future Chief Ministers.