The story so far: This year, on February 7, the United States of America and India announced the framework for an interim agreement regarding reciprocal and mutually beneficial trade, committing to the broader U.S.-India Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) negotiations of 2025, which included additional market access commitments and support more resilient supply chains.

As the U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Geer concluded his two-day visit to New Delhi on June 24, following multiple meetings with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal during which they reviewed the core elements of the interim trade agreement as well as the broader BTA, the farmer groups are yet again at the forefront to express their anguish through demonstrations, events and protests.

Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM), an umbrella organisation of about 500 farmers’ associations, Samyukta Kisan Morcha (Non-Political), Kisan Mazdoor Morcha (KMM) and Bhartiya Kisan Union (Chaduni), among other farmer outfits, have been raising their voices to air their concerns over the adverse impacts of the BTA.

What the BTA says:

The key terms of the interim agreement surrounding agricultural and food sectors, among others, included that India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods and a wide range of U.S. food and agricultural products, including dried distillers’ grains (DDGs), red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, soybean oil, wine and spirits and additional products. Recognising the importance of working together to resolve long-standing concerns, India also agreed to address long-standing non-tariff barriers to the trade in U.S. food and agricultural products. These terms raised concerns among farmers and horticulturists about the adverse impact on their livelihoods.

Why farmers are worried:

Farmers’ outfits are worried that the proposed trade agreement could inflict damage on Indian agriculture, as opening India’s agricultural markets to heavily subsidised American produce would leave farmers across the country struggling to compete.

The cheaper imports of feed substitutes such as DDGS and soybean oil could depress the prices of maize and soybeans. India has been almost self-dependent for cotton, with double the production of the U.S. Any withdrawal of cotton import duty will sink domestic cotton prices. Cotton imports are regulated through quotas, but any relaxation on U.S. cotton imports will be disastrous for farmers in States like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab, and Haryana, especially following a sharp decline in domestic prices. Also, easing certain non-tariff barriers could increase the risk of the entry of Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) material and the spread of new pests, plant diseases and invasive weeds. Such developments may pose a serious threat to the country’s agricultural ecosystem.

Agriculture in the United States operates on large landholdings, higher subsidies and economies of scale, enabling producers to export at lower prices. In such a scenario, farmers in India will find it extremely difficult to compete with American agricultural products. The U.S. is the second biggest producer of soya beans after Brazil, and 96% is GM soya. Imports of soya oil and DDG for animal feed will seriously impact India’s 40 lakh soybean farmers and industry. This agreement opens the doors for foreign companies to dominate the agricultural sector, say farmer bodies.

Orchardists concern:

Apple growers in Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhad are facing a growing anxiety surrounding the BTA. In Kashmir, 15 lakh families are associated with the apple trade and generate ₹30,000 crore annually. Himachal Pradesh produces apples worth ₹5,000-6,000 crore annually and engages over 1.5 lakh families in the sector. Orchardists fear cheap imports will lead to a collapse of the domestic apple industry.

Kuldeep Singh Rathore, a Congress MLA from Theog constituency in Shimla district, brought a resolution, which was unanimously passed in the Himachal Pradesh State Assembly in March this year, demanding that the union government protect State apple growers from the impacts of trade agreements. He noted that for India’s small and marginal apple farmers, the trade agreements could prove devastating as the average landholding of an apple grower in the State is just 1 to 2 acres, which are small family-run orchards, dependent entirely on seasonal income.

“Now compare this with Washington State in the United States - from where the majority of American apples are exported worldwide. The average apple orchard size there is close to 100 acres. One hundred acres versus one acre. “This is not a competition. This is structural inequality,” he noted. He added that in the U.S, apples are grown on high-density clonal rootstock, yielding 50 to 80 tonnes per hectare, while in Himachal, most of our production still comes from traditional seedling rootstock, yielding barely 6 to 7 tonnes per hectare.

On productivity alone, our farmers are at a tenfold disadvantage. The Apple Farmers’ Federation of India (AFFI) has noted that India’s orchardists living in precarious conditions with fast-depleting State support are being pushed into an unequal battle with the heavily supported rich U.S. farmers and agribusinesses.

Government’s latest take:

After the latest visit to India by Mr. Greer, a joint statement on June 24, stated that both sides noted substantial progress by negotiating teams in recent months and welcomed the momentum from successive technical and ministerial-level engagements. “Discussions focused on pathways to conclude an interim agreement as an important milestone toward a comprehensive BTA. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to an agreement that is balanced, commercially meaningful, and delivers tangible benefits for businesses, farmers, workers, and consumers in both countries,” it said.