A new study, analysing 24 years of data, has revealed how Assam’s shrinking forests, fragmented animal corridors, and expanding settlements and monoculture plantations — primarily tea — are driving one of the deadliest human-elephant conflicts in India.

Athira N.G., Ramesh Kumar Pandey, Kalpana Roy, Ananya Dutta, Dheeraj Mittal, Parag Nigam, Anukul Nath, and Bilal Habib are the authors of the study published in the latest issue of PeerJ, an international journal. They are from the Dehradun-based Wildlife Institute of India, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, and Ghaziabad’s Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research.

The researchers studied human mortality patterns linked to 1,806 incidents of human-elephant conflict (HEC) recorded in Assam from 2000 to 2023. These included 1,468 human deaths and 337 injuries, making it one of the gravest wildlife-related crises in the country.

“The data for this study were collected from 21 forest divisions of Assam and included detailed information (with gender-specific details). Using spatial analyses, kernel density mapping, and generalised linear modelling, this study identified key ecological and anthropogenic drivers of conflict,” the paper said.

The researchers said that, unlike studies that were localised or focused on short-term trends, their analysis sought to map long-term HECs across the State. They discovered that conflict hotspots were concentrated near fragmented forests, agricultural fields close to protected areas, tea plantations, settlements, and elephant reserves.

They found that Goalpara (south-western Assam), Sonitpur and Udalguri (north-central Assam) were the worst-affected districts. Sonitpur, Goalpara, and Udalguri recorded 266, 175, and 168 deaths respectively during the period that was studied.

The study also found that 527 villages across the State experienced some form of elephant conflict during the study period. Tragedy struck some villages repeatedly. They include Likhak Gaon (73 incidents), Jorhat (41), Ambari (40), Uttar Dimakuchi and Jogigaon (30 each), and Gormara Gaon (28).

The high-conflict villages were marked by habitat fragmentation, increasing urbanisation, and limited water resources, “which exacerbate conflicts between humans and elephants”.

Competition for water

Assam has an estimated 5,828 Asian elephants, one of the largest populations in India. The State has 12 identified elephant corridors, but rapid urbanisation, railway expansion, and tea plantation growth have steadily squeezed the animals’ habitats over the decades.

A highlight of the study was the strong seasonal pattern behind the HECs. Most incidents occurred during the monsoon months, when farming activities peak and elephants moved through agricultural landscapes in search of food and water.

Men were disproportionately affected in all seasons, which the researchers linked to outdoor work such as farming, guarding crops, and travelling at night.

“Water availability also plays a critical role in shaping conflict intensity. Villages with higher water densities tend to experience fewer incidents of HEC, as access to sufficient water sources reduces interaction with humans,” the study said.

“In contrast, high-conflict villages with limited water availability are more prone to encounters, as elephants are driven into human settlements in search of water. This pattern supports findings from other studies that emphasise the importance of water resources in mitigating human-wildlife conflicts,” it added.

Transition zones

The researchers found that medium-incident villages with significant tea garden coverage exhibit heightened conflicts.

“Tea gardens often serve as buffer zones, yet their proximity to built-up areas and reduced forest connectivity complicates the coexistence of humans and elephants. These findings align with a study that highlighted the impact of monoculture plantations on elephant movement patterns and conflict escalation,” the study said.

While they provide cover and vegetation for elephants to use, the tea gardens act as transition zones between forests and human settlements, increasing the chances of close encounters.

Suggesting solutions

The researchers were optimistic about coexistence with elephants in Assam. They recommended restoring forest connectivity, protecting elephant corridors, and improving access to water inside their habitats.

They suggested that farmers could plant “buffer crops”, such as chilli, ginger, garlic, and citrus fruits, which elephants tend to avoid. They also highlighted low-voltage, elephant-friendly hanging electric fences and rapid-response teams as effective tools for reducing human fatalities while avoiding harm to the animals.

Other suggestions included advanced warning systems, such as infrared trip wire alarms to detect elephant presence and alert communities in real time, and community-based elephant alert networks using mobile apps.