More than a hundred days have passed since the Tarique Rahman government took charge in Bangladesh. However, contrary to early expectations from his leadership, India-Bangladesh relations have remained more or less the same as in the difficult months of the interim government.

Actions, not rhetoric

India reached out twice before Mr. Rahman became the Bangladesh Prime Minister. The first outreach was by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar who visited Dhaka on December 31, 2025 to condole the passing of Mr. Rahman’s mother, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. The second time was through Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who carried Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation letter, and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla who on February 17 participated in the swearing-in ceremony of Mr. Rahman. But sources in the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) say such gestures in themselves are insufficient. An influential segment within the BNP feels that as a goodwill gesture towards the new government, India should have reversed some of the retributory steps that it had taken during the interim government’s rule under Muhammad Yunus. These steps included the restarting of transhipments for goods from Bangladesh, full restoration of visa services including business and medical visas, and stopping the restrictive market access for Bangladeshi goods. None of these measures has been implemented so far, as per Dhaka. They argue that, by not reversing these decisions, India has not delivered any advance incentives to Mr. Rahman who will have to engage with the Jamaat-e-Islami and several anti-India student outfits before normalising ties with India.

On its part, the BNP’s veteran leaders have tried to smoothen the relationship by creating greater public acceptability of the position that the presence of the deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in India will not hold ties back, a departure from the hardline stance that the interim government had taken. Here also, Dhaka feels that such attempts have not found appreciation from the Indian side.

As proof they refer to the aggressive use of ‘illegal immigration’ in official communication from Delhi following the victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal and Assam. Bangladeshi diplomats have pointed out that Dhaka expected less rhetoric on sensitive issues such as illegal immigration, and more focus on issues such as visa restoration and the renewal of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty.

Dhaka had sent Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman to Delhi on April 7-8 for a brief visit, to test the waters, where he met National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Mr. Jaishankar. However, the election campaign in Assam and West Bengal around Bangladesh-related issues and a flurry of interviews by exiled PM Sheikh Hasina have displayed that Mr. Rahman’s BNP, despite winning a landslide majority in Bangladesh, has not managed to impress India. While a senior diplomat in Dhaka said that Bangladesh was assured that the language around State elections would not reflect New Delhi’s foreign policy, the Ministry of External Affairs’ strident position on illegal immigration have generated ‘a sense of betrayal’ in Dhaka’s secretariat.

According to reports, Mr. Rahman, sensing that the window for restoration of ties with India is not opening as per expectations, is in the final stages of considering visits to Malaysia and China that are likely to take place in the last week of June.

Bangladesh’s dilemma

This turn to China however cannot hide the fact that it is incumbent on Bangladesh, as much as it is on India, to repair bilateral ties. Bangladesh’s ties with India remain broken because of the 2024 uprising and the subsequent interim rule whereas its ties with China, the U.S. and other players have prospered since August 2024. Further, a pragmatic assessment shows that without steady assurance from India on the main river Padma (Ganga), Bangladesh’s other plans are not expected to proceed smoothly beyond 2026. River affairs expert Ainun Nishat has stated that a delay in the renewal of the 30-year-old Ganga treaty will put the Ganges-Kobadak irrigation project in a challenging situation affecting vast portions of western and central Bangladesh. The lack of predictable water supply will affect the upcoming sowing seasons, hurting Bangladesh’s economy that is already dealing with the crippling effects of the energy crisis because of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.

The compounded effect of these disruptive forces will increase pressure on the Tarique Rahman government that is already under criticism for its inept handling of the worst measles outbreak in the country that has claimed the lives of at least 600 infants. Critics have targeted the government for its weak handling of the health crisis as well as the growing incidents of sexual violence, which is a symptom of the breakdown of law and order in the country that is yet to make a recovery since the protests of August 2024. Rivals, including Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League that are mobilising on the ground despite a ban, will be strengthened if Mr. Rahman fails to renew the Ganga river agreement with Delhi before the deadline of December 31, 2026.

Such material factors on the ground call for pragmatism in both the capitals as the challenges will soon overwhelm Bangladesh, reverting it to instability, which again is not in India’s immediate or long-term interests.