There is broad consensus in India that the greatest challenge facing India’s territorial integrity and sovereignty is from China. There is also a growing understanding that the ill-thought out economic dependencies created on that country need to be replaced by sustainable arrangements. It is in the former context that Vijay Gokhale’s latest book on China acquires serious salience.

Gokhale, who retired as foreign secretary in 2020, is undoubtedly one of India’s finest present-day experts on China. After his retirement his effort has been to present an Indian perspective on China’s domestic, foreign and security policies.

In this book, Gokhale uses six case studies to identify Chinese strategy and tactics. He finds important commonalities on what motivates China to initiate conflict or coercion. The intention is to draw lessons for India. The case studies are: the China-US-Taiwan Strait crisis of 1958, the India-China border war of 1962, the Sino-Soviet border conflict of 1969, the China-Vietnam war and China’s grey zone tactics over the decades. In the latter he covers the more recent and ongoing China/Philippines/South China Sea and the China/Taiwan/Taiwan Strait cases.

The chapters on the 1962 war, China’s extensive use of grey zone tactics against India over the decades and the lessons India must draw from Chinese strategy and tactics are most pertinent. The Tibet issue is briefly addressed. The sections on the 1962 war succinctly present the facts that hollow out the Chinese justification for its aggression. The 1962 war had been carefully planned by China.

Gokhale arrives at several principal assessments from the case studies. These are: that historically, China was an expansionist power whenever it was strong and militarily powerful; that it cloaks its aggression as ‘just war’ accompanied by systematic narrative creation; that there is a domestic dimension to China’s use of force; that the evolving China-US-Russia triangular balance of power plays an important role in the decision to use military force (importantly, this remains the case). He also feels that China’s military action should not lead to large-scale conflict involving the US, and discusses the fear of encirclement especially after the Sino-Soviet border clashes (a fear that persists but from a different direction), and China’s keenness to normalise relations with the US.

The greater focus on grey zone tactics as against military coercion came, Gokhale argues, after Deng Xiaoping assumed power post the Cultural Revolution and the focus shifted to the Four Modernisations. It bears recalling, though, that national defence was the fourth of these and the success of that is visible in the new and powerful People’s Liberation Army (the military wing of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)) that is today challenging the US and other militaries.

Insofar as the South China Sea issue is concerned, Gokhale assesses that “The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) calibrated actions over a period of years have neither triggered an effective American response nor given cause for the region to band together out of concern over the threat that China poses to its maritime interests”. This has of course also happened because China has been able to effectively break ASEAN unity on this issue. Recent Chinese grey zone actions against the Philippines and Taiwan were also intended to gradually erode the reputation of the US. But China has also lost trust in the region.

On Taiwan, the possibility of a forcible takeover by China remains moot because of the attendant risk. But grey zone military coercion is likely to increase. US policy will be an important determinant.

Lessons for India?

According to Gokhale, the Chinese Communists continue to see themselves as Asia’s leaders; they do not regard India as a peer competitor; India’s readiness to resolve the boundary question is unlikely to alter the Chinese calculus of thinking; they assess the current threat from India as being relatively low for the time being; and there is no compelling cause for the PRC to settle the border dispute with India. Hence, India must prepare for a prolonged period of armed coexistence and sustained grey zone coercion by China including through deceit and deception.

Gokhale suggests that the most likely scenario in which the PRC could initiate a large-scale conflict with India is where it believes its core national security concerns, in concert or conjunction with its primary adversaries, are impacted. This is a reference to containment of China by the US and any challenge to the rule of the CCP. He believes that China would likely prioritise ensuring continued Indian neutrality as China’s geopolitical contest with the US sharpens; the limited use of force for nudging India back whenever it might stray from that neutral position cannot be ruled out.

Additionally, there is no circumstance under which large-scale conflict between India and China should be ruled out entirely, especially since China is an opportunistic power. Given the present flux and complexity in regional and international relations and the US’ unpredictability under Trump, one can appreciate the difficulty for the author to be more categoric about the options outlined.

Gokhale paints a grim picture for India’s relations with China in the years ahead until such time India’s comprehensive national strength grows further. However, India is not bereft of options in the event its sovereignty and territorial integrity are again threatened or violated by China. And, China is presently not without its own domestic, regional, international and ideological vulnerabilities.

The book is a must read for those interested in Sino-Indian relations and what drives China in its quest for so-called national rejuvenation.

The reviewer was India’s ambassador to China between August 2003 to October 2006. Disclaimer: He has known Vijay Gokhale over the decades, with both in the Indian Foreign Service and also worked together on China

Title: China’s Wars: The Politics and Diplomacy behind its Military Coercion

Author: Vijay Gokhale

Publisher: Simon & Schuster India

Price: ₹699

Published on June 14, 2026