The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce the decisions taken in its first meeting of the financial year 2026-27 on Wednesday. Led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, the six-member panel will deliberate on key aspects such as interest rates, inflation outlook, and growth projections.
Amid rising geopolitical tensions and a weakening rupee, the forecasts and policy decisions come in the backdrop of the Reserve Bank of India’s February 2026 move to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, following a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points through 2025.
Date and Time
The bi-monthly MPC meeting is scheduled from April 6 to April 8, 2026. The policy outcome will be announced at 10:00 a.m on April 8, followed by a press conference by Governor Malhotra later in the day.
Expectations
RBI is likely to keep the benchmark policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent in the April monetary policy review meeting, as the West Asia crisis is likely to push up inflation, according to economists.
The continuing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, volatility in commodity prices and sharp currency movement that have seen the rupee hit record lows might determine the policy outlook, and its projections on growth, inflation and also the stance of policy will be keenly watched.
GDP & Inflation
- The Reserve Bank of India had earlier projected strong growth for India, but evolving global conditions — especially rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions — may lead to revisions in growth and inflation forecasts.
- Economists note that while retail inflation has moved closer to the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%, the recent surge in global crude oil prices raises concerns about second-round effects on domestic prices, particularly fuel, transportation, and core inflation.
- Estimates suggest that every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices can push inflation higher by up to 0.60%.
- Crude oil prices, which hovered around $60 per barrel for a prolonged period, have risen to over $100 per barrel since the onset of the conflict in late February.
- The rupee has depreciated by over 4% since the conflict began, adding further pressure through higher import inflation. Overall, elevated crude prices and currency volatility are seen as key upside risks to inflation going forward.
What happened in 2025–2026?
Feb 2025 – 25 bps rate cut, neutral stance Apr 2025 – 25 bps rate cut, neutral stance Jun 2025 – 50 bps rate cut, neutral stance Aug 2025 – no rate cut, neutral stance Oct 2025 – no rate cut, neutral stance Dec 2025 – 25 bps rate cut, neutral stance Feb 2026 – no rate cut, neutral stance
Where to watch
The announcements and the subsequent press conference will be live streamed on the RBI’s YouTube channel. Viewers can also follow RBI’s official social media handles for updates. businessline will run a live blog to provide real-time coverage and key highlights.
Published on April 7, 2026