REPRESENTATIVE IMAGE: Find the qualifications scenarios for each team ahead of the final set of group stage fixtures. | Photo Credit: Getty Images
REPRESENTATIVE IMAGE: Find the qualifications scenarios for each team ahead of the final set of group stage fixtures. | Photo Credit: Getty Images
The third and final round of group stage matches at FIFA World Cup 2026 will commence on Wednesday with plenty of slots in the round of 32 still up for grabs.
Mexico, USA, Germany, France, Norway and Argentina are the only sides that have sealed their place in the first knockout round which begins on June 28.
Since the number of teams have been expanded from 36 to 48, the top-eight third placed team can also qualify to the round of 32.
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Here are the qualification scenarios for each team heading into the final round of group-stage fixtures:
Mexico became the first team in the tournament to seal passage to the round of 32 with six points. South Korea can seal its place in the final 32 with a victory. A draw will also suffice for the Asian nation since it holds the head-to-head advantage over Czechia.
Czechia will need a win against Mexico and hope South Africa beats South Korea to make the top two. Czechia will still remain in contention even if Korea’s result doesn’t go its way. If Czechia draws or loses its final game and South Africa succumbs to Korea, it will still finish third but will have minimal chance of finishing in the top eight.
South Africa can qualify if it beats South Korea in the final game and Mexico defeats Czechia. The head-to-head win over Korea will take it directly to second place in the table. A draw for either team leaves them dependent on third-place wild card slots.
Both Switzerland and Canada now have four points at the end of two games and look to be in prime position to qualify out of the group. The two sides will play each other on June 24 at Vancouver to decide who tops the group. A draw between the two will send them both through to the Round of 32.
The loser of the encounter will finish on four points and could end up level with the third place team, with the head-to-head record then coming into play if Bosnia and Herzegovina beats the eliminat Qatar.
If the game between Bosnia and Qatar ends in draw, the former will have to hope it doesn’t finish among the four worst third-placed teams.
As things stand, Brazil and Morocco are the frontrunners to secure direct qualification.
The two teams will be the overwhelming favourites against their respective opponents. Morocco will try to improve its goal difference against Haiti, the lowest-ranked team this World Cup, in hope of qualifying as the group winner.
Brazil will need at least a draw to secure top-two. Scotland will most probably finish in third place and will hope it ends up among the best eight third-placed teams. It will be better-placed if it ends with four points.
With USA securing qualification as the group winner and Turkiye already eliminated, the fight for second place will be between Australia and Paraguay.
The two sides face each other in Los Angeles on June 25 in a direct face-off for second place. Australia can seal second place with a draw due to its higher goal difference.
With three points in the bag, Paraguay will be fairly confident of making the knockout rounds as one of the eight best third-placed teams, irrespective of the result in the final game.
Curacao’s hard-fought draw against Ecuador brought about its first point in the World Cup. The side still remains bottom of the table but can climb up with a favourable result in its next game against Ivory Coast.
Ivory Coast needs a solitary point in that encounter to make sure of qualification to the next phase as the second-placed team.
Ecuador will need to beat Germany and hope that Ivory Coast loses to Curacao to move to second place, thanks to a better goal difference in comparison to the small island nation. If Ecuador only draws or loses its final game, it will need Ivory Coast to beat Curacao to finish third.
The Netherlands and Japan are tied on four points, with the former leading the standings due to more goals scored. Both of them can book their spots in the round of 32 if they can avoid defeat.
Meanwhile, Sweden can clinch qualification if it manages to beat Japan, but will also be in a good position to advance to the next stage as one of the eight best third-placed teams if it can avoid defeat.
Tunisia is out of contention to qualify for the round of 32.
Egypt can seal qualification with a point against Iran in its final match of Group G. A loss followed by a Belgium win against New Zealand could push it down to third, but that could be enough to progress as one of the eight-best third place teams.
Iran can qualify with a win over Egypt if Belgium drops points against New Zealand. If Belgium also wins, the team finishing higher will be decided on goal difference.
New Zealand will need to beat Belgium in its final game to stand a chance of qualification to the round of 32.
Spain is well placed to qualify after earning four points from two matches. Even a defeat in its final group-stage match could be enough for Spain to progress, potentially as one of the best third-placed teams.
Uruguay can qualify alongside Spain with a draw in their final match, provided Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia also draw. A defeat would leave Uruguay relying on other results.
Cape Verde will qualify if it beats Saudi Arabia and Uruguay fails to beat Spain. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, must defeat Cape Verde and hope Uruguay does not take all three points against Spain.
France and Norway have already confirmed their passage to Round of 32.
Senegal and Iraq will be involved in a direct shootout to finish in the third place. Since their respective goal differences have taken a severe hit, both will have to target a big win to qualify in third place.
Argentina has six points after two rounds and has already qualified for the next stage.
Algeria will take on Austria in its final game, and a win for either side will take them to six points and help them qualify as the second-placed team.
If the match ends in a draw, Austria will go through due to a better goal difference. Jordan has been eliminated from the competition.
To be updated after Colombia vs DR Congo encounter
England and Ghana can seal their spot in the next round with a draw in its final group fixture. A loss could also suffice to go through as one of the third-placed teams.
Croatia can usurp Ghana into second place with a win in their head-to-head encounter. Anything less and the 2018 finalist will need to be among the top eight third-placed teams to continue in the competition.
Panama has been eliminated.
Published on Jun 24, 2026
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