Exit polls at the end of the last round of polling in West Bengal gave a divided verdict for the eastern state while largely presenting continuity for incumbents in Tamil Nadu and Assam. In Kerala, the polls saw the pendulum swing back to the Congress-led UDF, while the ruling NDA maintains a steady edge in the Union Territory of Puducherry.
However, exit polls have often proved wrong, especially in West Bengal, where, as the ruling Trinamool Congress MP Derek O’ Brien underlined, no poll had predicted a TMC sweep in the state in the 2021 Assembly polls.
The Bengal Mystery
Exit polls were split in their prediction for West Bengal, with three pollsters, including Matrize, JVC and Praja Poll, predicting that Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is headed for a loss. Conversely, P-Marq, Janmat Polls and People’s Pulse forecast a decisive return for the TMC, giving the incumbent party a clear majority in the 294-member House.
DMK Dominance
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance was largely predicted to retain power. However, the entry of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) was seen as a major disruptor. While most agencies gave TVK 2 to 10 seats, Axis-My India predicted a “political tsunami”, suggesting the debutant party could even touch the halfway mark with 98-120 seats in the 234-member Assembly. Barring this outlier, the consensus pointed to a second term for Chief Minister M.K. Stalin.
Assam and Kerala: Continuity vs Change
Pollsters were unanimous in their prediction for Assam heading for a “saffron hat-trick”. The BJP-led NDA was projected to win between 85 and 101 seats in the 126-member assembly. Axis My India pegged the NDA at 88-100 seats, buoyed by a projected 48 per cent vote share and a near-sweep of the Upper Assam and Bodoland regions.
In contrast, Kerala was predicted to return to its traditional pattern of alternating power. After the LDF’s historic back-to-back win in 2021, the Congress-led UDF was projected to wrest control, with estimates ranging from 72 to 90 seats in the 140-member house. Most pollsters, including Matrize and Axis My India, suggested the LDF will be restricted to the 50-65 seat range.
Puducherry: NDA Likely to Retain
In the 30-member Puducherry Assembly, pollsters said the incumbent AINRC–BJP (NDA) alliance holds the advantage. Axis My India predicted 16-20 seats for the ruling bloc, while People’s Pulse suggests 16-19 seats. The Congress-DMK opposition was expected to trail with 6-12 seats, while the TVK could make a minor dent with 2-4 seats.
Published on April 29, 2026