Several exit polls on Wednesday predicted a thumping victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Assam and a clear edge for the party over the ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, while projecting a return of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam government in Tamil Nadu and a comeback by the Congress-led UDF in Kerala after 10 years.
The pollsters also forecast a return to power for the AINRC-led NDA government in Puducherry.
Assam and Kerala projections
Axis My India predicted a sweep for the BJP in Assam, forecasting 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies and 24-36 seats for the Congress and its partners.
People’s Pulse predicted that the NDA would get 68-72 seats while the Congress plus would secure in the range of 22-26 seats.
Matrize said the NDA is likely to get between 85-95 seats and the Congress and its allies 25-32. The Assam assembly has 126 seats with the magic mark being 64.
In Kerala, Axis My India forecast that the UDF would get 78-90 seats, LDF 49-62 and NDA 0-3.
People’s Pulse predicted that the Congress-led UDF would get 75-85 seats, the LDF 55-65 and the NDA 0-3.
Matrize forecast 60-65 seats for the LDF, 70-75 seats for the UDF and 3-5 seats for the NDA. Kerala Assembly has a total of 140 seats with the magic mark being 71.
West Bengal and Tamil Nadu projections
In West Bengal, the People’s Pulse exit poll predicted that the TMC would get 177-187 seats, BJP 95-110, Left Front 0-1 and the Congress 1-3.
Matrize, however, predicted a BJP edge in the state, and said it is likely to get 146-161 seats. It said the TMC would get 125-140 seats.
P-Marq predicted 150-175 for the BJP and 118-138 to the TMC.
West Bengal has a total of 294 seats with the majority mark being 148.
In Tamil Nadu, the People’s Pulse predicted 125-145 for the DMK-led alliance, 65-80 for AIADMK-BJP and 18-24 for TVK.
Matrize forecast that the DMK-Congress would get 122-132, NDA 87-100 and TVK 10-12.
The Tamil Nadu has a total of 234 seats with the magic mark being 118.
Puducherry outlook and caveat
Most exit polls have had a chequered history and have been off the mark on several occasions in the past.
In Puducherry, Axis My India predicted 16-20 seats for the NDA and 6-8 for the DMK-Congress. It said the TVK is likely to get 2-4 seats in the assembly. There are 30 elected seats in Puducherry.
Polling timeline and voter turnout
The counting of votes for all the five assemblies -- West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam -- will be taken up on May 4.
Polls were conducted in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. West Bengal saw two-phase polling on April 23 and 29.
On April 9, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry went to polls. Assam and Puducherry surpassed their highest-ever poll participation by recording a voter turnout of 85.38 per cent and 89.83 per cent respectively.
Tamil Nadu went to polls on April 23 along with the first phase of polls in West Bengal. Tamil Nadu with 84.69 per cent recorded their highest-ever voter turnout in Assembly polls since Independence.
In the first phase, West Bengal had recorded a record 91.78 per cent voter turnout.
Key political stakes
While the BJP is seeking to retain power in Assam and Puducherry, where it is in an alliance government with All India N R Congress, the Congress is looking to wrest power from its rival in both these places.
In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seeking to replace the LDF government that is in power, while in Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is looking to retain power by thwarting the challenge from AIADMK-BJP and the debutant party -- Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam that is led by actor-turned-politician Vijay.
The Mamata Banerjee-led TMC is looking to retain West Bengal and thwart the challenge from the BJP.
Published on April 29, 2026