The IPCC report cautioned that climate-related risks to agriculture and food systems in Asia will progressively escalate with the changing climate, with differentiated impacts across the region.

The Centre’s focus on natural farming through traditional method can get a leg up as the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said that “indigenous knowledge, traditional knowledge and local knowledge have increased drought resilience among crop and livestock farmers” in India. It has also warned that India will be seriously harmed if emissions are not cut amid rising temperature.

According to the second installment of IPCC Working Group II report on ‘Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, “Only 7 per cent of all disaster events were drought-related between 1970 and 2019, yet they contributed disproportionately to 34 per cent of disaster-related death, mostly in Africa.”

Repurcussions

Climate change and rising demand mean about 40 per cent of people in India will live with water scarcity by 2050 compared with about 33 per cent now, according to a study cited by the report. Both the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins will also see increased flooding as a result of climate change, particularly if warming passes 1.5 degree Celsius.

“In India, rice production can decrease from 10 to 30 per cent whereas maize production can decrease from 25 to 70 per cent assuming a range of temperature increase from 1 to 4 degree Celsius,” it said.

These factors, along with saltwater intrusion from sea-level rise, will harm agriculture in India, which, according to the report, is the most vulnerable country in Asia in terms of crop production. Rice, wheat, pulses, coarse cereal yields could fall almost 9 per cent by 2050. In South India, maize production could decrease 17 per cent if emissions are high. These disruptions are expected to cause price spikes, threatening food affordability, food security and economic growth.

Also continued climate change will cause a decline in the fisheries output. Species like Hilsa shad and Bombay duck are projected to decline dramatically if temperatures continue to rise as the energy harnessed by marine plants and algae, crucial for strong fisheries, in the western Indian Ocean have already declined 20 per cent in the last 60 years due to climate change reducing the nutrient mixing between ocean levels.

Globally, heat and humidity will create conditions beyond human tolerance if emissions are not rapidly eliminated, it pointed out, while also projecting that India could experience these intolerable conditions. The IPCC report cautioned that climate-related risks to agriculture and food systems in Asia will progressively escalate with the changing climate, with differentiated impacts across the region.

Wet-bulb temperatures

Referring to wet-bulb temperatures, a measure that combines heat and humidity, the report warned that if emissions continue to rise, wet-bulb temperatures will approach or exceed the unsurvivable limit of 35 degrees Celsius over much of India, with the majority of the country reaching wet-bulb temperatures of 31 degrees Celsius or more.

“Currently, wet-bulb temperatures in India rarely exceed 31 degree Celsius, with most of the country experiencing maximum wet-bulb temperatures of 25-30 degree Celsius,” said the report. A wet-bulb temperature of 31 degrees Celsius is extremely dangerous for humans, while a value of 35 degrees Celsius is unsurvivable for more than about six hours, even for fit and healthy adults resting in the shade.

Water scarcity

“By mid-21st Century, the international transboundary river basins of Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges and inter-State Sabarmati-river basin in India could face severe water scarcity challenges with climate change acting as a stress multiplier. Due to global warming, Asian countries could experience an increase of drought conditions (5-20 per cent) by the end of this century,” it said.

Aflatoxin (carcinogen) exposure is expected to increase in India among others such as Africa, Europe and North America. Other carcinogenic toxins originate from cyanobacteria blooms which are projected to increase in frequency and distribution with climate change.

Warning about the sea level rise, the report said India is one of the most vulnerable countries globally in terms of the population that will be affected by sea-level rise. “By the middle of the century, around 35 million people in India could face annual coastal flooding, with 45-50 million at risk by the end of the century if emissions are high, with far fewer at risk if emissions are lower,” it said.

GDP decline

According to the report, high levels of warming could cause a global GDP decline of 10-23 per cent by the end of the century, compared to a world without warming. Several major economies could see even larger economic declines because of climate change, with a study cited in the report estimating GDP losses up to 42 per cent in China and 92 per cent in India, if emissions are high by 2099.

Published on February 28, 2022