According to Ambit Capital, India’s 2025 festive season reflects a mixed economic scene. High-frequency indicators highlight rural resilience, with stronger liquidity and consumption potential than urban centers. Since mid-2024, rural consumer sentiments index has outpaced urban levels, driven by robust agricultural activity and rising wages, positioning rural areas for healthier festive spending compared to stressed metros.

Meanwhile, corporate wage bills slowed sharply to 7% in FY25, below nominal GDP growth, indicating strain in formal employment markets. Household leverage now restrains consumption, while tighter regulations and repayment pressures limit retail credit, dampening discretionary spending despite festive optimism. Key trends.

Published on October 21, 2025