The West Asia conflict has triggered a sharp surge in crude and gas prices, significantly complicating India’s fiscal calculations for FY27, an ICRA report says. With Brent and the Indian crude basket rising steeply, and LNG prices nearly doubling, subsidy burdens for Fertilizer and LPG are set to overshoot Budget allocations. ICRA estimates that the Fertilizer subsidy alone could exceed the Budget by ₹400 billion. Elevated crude prices may also force excise duty cuts, risking significant revenue losses. Meanwhile, tax and dividend inflows from petroleum companies could weaken as refining margins shrink. Key facts.

Published on March 31, 2026