Monsoon clouds were seen consolidating just off the Kerala coast over Lakshadweep and adjoining seas while pre-monsoon thunderstorms were active over parts of Central and East India through Monday. | Photo Credit: www.windy.com
Rain clouds are once again consolidating over the south-east Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep and advancing towards the Kerala coast, even though the monsoon itself has yet to move beyond Sunday’s position.
On Monday afternoon, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continued to run just south of Kanyakumari, extending through northern Sri Lanka before sweeping diagonally across the Bay of Bengal into Myanmar.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance further into parts of Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and adjoining areas of the Bay of Bengal over next 2-3 days.
It has forecast very heavy rainfall over Kerala and Mahe for five days beginning Wednesday, coinciding with the expected window for monsoon onset. Isolated to scattered light-to-moderate rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 km/hr are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal; Kerala and Mahe; Lakshadweep; and Telangana for next four days.
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal; and Kerala and Mahe for six days, the IMD outlook said. Similar conditions are likely also over Lakshadweep for four days; interior Karnataka for three days; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, for two days; and Costal Karnataka, three days from Wednesday.
Looking further ahead, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates that rainfall over the next fortnight may remain concentrated along the coasts of Kerala and Karnataka, while also extending into parts of central Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The outlook suggests Mumbai may have to wait well beyond its usual monsoon onset date of June 10 for sustained rains.
Meanwhile, there appears to be little support for the monsoon from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the eastward-moving pulse of tropical convection that periodically enhances rainfall over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts show an incoming MJO weakening over the Western Hemisphere and Africa by June 19 before becoming indistinct through the remainder of the month. Current guidance offers no clear indication of its return to the Indian Ocean in time to provide meaningful support to the monsoon.
An extended 46-day outlook from ECMWF shows the West Coast and Central and East India recording highest accumulated rainfall of up to 500 mm until the middle of July, rainiest of four monsoon months. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in
Meanwhile, a 46-day outlook from the ECMWF (valid from June to July 13) from June to the middle of the rainiest month of July revealed an interesting pattern. Accumulated rainfall is shown to be highest along the West Coast from Mumbai-Konkan to Goa; Coastal Karnataka; and Kerala as also over eastern Madhya Pradesh; Chhattisgarh; Odisha; West Bengal; and eastern Bihar (400-500 mm). It will be 100-200 mm over Tamil Nadu; Karnataka; Rayalaseema; Telangana; Marathwada; West Madhya Pradesh; and entire Uttar Pradesh.
This would likely leave out Gujarat and adjoining North-West India, including Rajasthan; Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi; Jammu and Kashmir within the bracket of comparably lesser amounts of 40-125 mm in accumulated rainfall. Uttarakhand and parts of Himachal Pradesh may be the exceptions likely logging in a more respectable 100-125 mm in accumulated rainfall until mid-July. Border districts of Barmer; Jaisalmer; Phalodi; and Bikaner in Rajasthan may record the least minimum of 40-50 mm during this period, per the ECMWF outlook
Published on June 1, 2026
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