India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that most of the global models forecast emergence of El Niño during India’s monsoon season and may last at least until January 2026, potentially bringing lower rains both during kharif and rabi seasons in the country. IMD has also said that monsoon may hit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 14-16.
Currently, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific are evolving towards El Niño which may continue till January 2026. Though a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions help monsoon rain, the impact of El Nino could overshadow even if IOD becomes near-positive, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD.
At present neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and latest climate models indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon season. India’s kharif sowing season begins with onset of monsoon on the mainland around June 1, while Rabi (winter) crops planting commences in October.
Lower rainfall predicted
IMD has already predicted below normal monsoon, quantitatively 92 per cent of long period average of 87 cm in 2026. Last year, the south west monsoon had hit Kerala coast on May 24, the earliest since 2009 from the normal date of June 1. The onset over the Andaman and Nicober Islands was also a week earlier on May 13, against normal May 20.
Briefing media on IMD’s monthly weather forecast during May, Mohapatra said that above-normal heatwave days are likely in some parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, east coast states, Gujarat and Maharashtra in May. He also said that the average rainfall over the country as a whole during May is most likely to be above normal.
“During May, minimum (night) temperatures are expected to be above normal across many parts of the country. However, many areas of north-west and some parts of central India and adjoining areas of south peninsular region are likely to experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures,” he said.
He also said some parts of east, northeast and east central India may witness below-normal rainfall whereas it is expected to be above normal over remaining parts of India.
Kalyan Goswami, Director General of Agrochem Federation of India (ACFI), said that good rainfall this month may help boost Kharif sowing by ensuring adequate soil moisture. Farmers growing paddy, pulses, and oilseeds may get a boost to start sowing on time, potentially raising rural disposable income, he said. “We expect higher area coverage for pulses and oilseeds and lowering irrigation costs for farmers and lessen reliance on groundwater for initial land preparation,” he said.
Ankur Aggarwal, Chairman, CropLife India and Executive Chairman and Managing Director, Crystal Crop Protection Ltd, said the Kharif season this year is being shaped by two parallel risks. On one side, the monsoon is projected at 92 per cent of the long-period average due to El Nino emerging. It could lead to delayed sowing, uneven crop establishment and heightened pest and disease pressure. Dry spells followed by intermittent humidity can create favourable conditions for outbreaks such as blast and sheath blight in rice, fall armyworm and stalk rot in maize, sucking pests in cotton and charcoal rot in soybean. At the same time, the West Asia conflict is impacting upstream supply chains, with key inputs like methanol, ammonia, LPG and petrochemical derivatives facing disruption.
This is translating into higher costs and potential tightness, even as recent Government measures, including customs duty exemptions, aim to ease availability.
For farmers, this season comes with a lot of uncertainty. Even a short delay can make a difference to yields. This is why staying closely connected to the field will matter more than ever, especially when dry spells are followed by humidity, which can quickly trigger pest and disease outbreaks., he said.
Published on May 1, 2026