The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) said Tuesday that rising fertiliser prices linked to geopolitical tensions in West Asia pose a risk of pushing up costs for coffee growers worldwide and could impact production.
In its latest market report for March, ICO said the long-term effect of sustained high fertiliser prices can significantly impact production. “While production for the current 2025-26 crop is not likely to suffer significantly as fertilizers have already been applied in most cases, it creates some risks for the 2026-27 crop if the disruption is prolonged. Between 1/4 and 1/3 of the global fertilizer trade -- and up to 1/3 of nitrogen fertilizers (urea) -- transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf region also is a major producer of fertilizers,” the ICO said.
West Asia tensions disrupt shipping and lift prices
The latest ICO report also shows that global coffee prices rebounded in March 2026 after three months of decline, driven largely by tensions in West Asia that disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The benchmark ICO Composite Indicator Price rose 2.3% month-on-month to 273.70 US cents per pound, reflecting heightened freight costs and supply chain uncertainty. Around 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits through the Strait of Hormuz, along with almost 20% of the global liquified natural gas exports.
Mixed price trends across coffee varieties
The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ prices expanded 2% and 4.0% in March 2026 compared to February 2026, averaging 337.45 and 334.34 US cents/lb, respectively. The Brazilian Naturals’ prices grew 3.9% to 320.51 US cents/lb in March 2026.
In the same month, the Robustas declined by 1.6% to 176.77 US cents/lb. The prices at the London Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE) market decreased by 2.5% to 161.91 US cents/lb, while the New York ICE market increased by 0.5% to 290.18 US cents/lb in March 2026.
India gains amid global supply disruptions
For India, these developments had a mixed impact as the country has benefited from tighter global supplies and disruptions in competing origins such as Vietnam. India’s coffee exports posted a strong growth of an estimated 38.5% in February 2026, reaching about 0.79 million bags, compared with 0.57 million bags a year earlier. This growth helped partially offset a broader decline in exports from the Asia & Oceania region, which fell 4.7% during the same period.
The surge in Indian shipments comes at a time when Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta exporter, saw a sharp drop in exports due to the timing of the Tết holiday. This created an opportunity for Indian exporters, particularly in Robusta and soluble coffee segments, to capture additional market share. Besides India, other exporters, such as Brazil and Indonesia, also benefited from Vietnam’s downturn.
Global exports decline amid weak supply
Global green bean exports of the Robustas were down 3.7% to 4.05 million bags in February 2026 from 4.2 million bags in February 2025, mainly due to a decline in shipments from Vietnam. Overall coffee exports declined 5.7% year on year to 11.46 million bags in February, reflecting weaker supply from major producers such as Brazil and Colombia. South America’s exports plunged 21.8%, while Colombia’s shipments dropped sharply due to lower production.
India’s coffee shipments touched a record $2.136 billion for the financial year ending March 2026, driven by higher prices and a modest increase in volumes to over 4.07 lakh tonnes.
Published on April 14, 2026