The outlook for the oilseed, which has gained 12 per cent since the beginning of 2026, is bearish from the second half of the year as US farmers are set to shift to soybeans from corn, according to analysts. 

“We have raised our average annual price forecast for second-month CBOT-listed soybean futures to 1,130 US cents a bushel, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7 per cent,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. 

The agency’s upward revision has been underpinned by two key factors: better-than-expected trade volumes between the US and China through late Q4 2025 and early Q1 2026, and price appreciation stemming from the onset of the US-Iran conflict. 

Loose fundamentals

The research agency said it had highlighted that market optimism driven by US-China trade dynamics and the conflict in Iran would be tempered as focus shifts towards a loose fundamental outlook. 

“This view was reinforced this week by the USDA’s prospective plantings report, which confirmed our expectation that US plantings will shift towards soybeans at the expense of corn, reinforcing the bearish supply picture,” it said. 

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), global soybean production in the 2026-27 season (October-September) will likely be higher at 442.3 million tonnes (mt) compared with estimates of 425.9 mt in 2025-26.

4% higher area?

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its Prospective Plantings, said growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026, up 4 per cent from last year. “Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating States,” it said.

BMI said the upbeat sentiment over the US-China trade in Q4 2025 was fading. “We have long noted that trade between the two countries remains contingent on goodwill rather than Chinese necessity… The upturn in crude oil prices has provided a near-term price floor, though we expect this support to diminish as the conflict resolves,” it said.

The research agency said in Q2, soybeans will average 1,155 cents/bushel, while in Q3 it will average 1,130 cents and in Q4, the average would be 1,105 cents.

“The Q2 uptick reflects prices entering the quarter at elevated levels on the back of crude oil support, with expectations of a US-China meeting likely to provide a further lift to market sentiment. However, we expect prices to ease through H2 2026 as market focus shifts towards the US 2026-27 crop and a loose fundamental picture,” said BMI.

Another record Brazil harvest

The bearishness will be underpinned by expectations of a second successive record Brazilian harvest and increased US soybean acreage. “While significant volatility will likely centre on US-China trade discussions, we expect the weight of global supplies to moderate short-term price action and ultimately cap upside potential,” said BMI.

The IGC said soybean availability will be higher at 520.4 mt (507.7 mt in 2025-26) in 2026-27, while crushing at 391.1 mt (379.8 mt). 

BMI said that with the Brazilian 2025-26 harvest underway, we note that the near-term price outlook is likely to be moderated by an abundance of physical supply in the world’s leading export market. 

On the consumption side,  the research agency said global consumption would reach 423 mt, up 2.7 per cent year-on-year, resulting in a global production surplus of 4.1 mt.

Lower US exports

Though the US and China have entered into a deal that ensures the latter will buy 12 mt of soybean by February-end and then 25 mt every year, Washington’s shipments are only 8.5 mt compared with over 20 mt a year ago.  

 BMI said the recent surge in nitrogen fertiliser prices, a key input cost for corn production, strengthens the economic case for farmers to rotate towards soybeans. However, it has yet to be fully reflected in the USDA’s planting intentions. 

 BMI said its downside risk centres on the possibility that Chinese demand for US soybeans may fail to materialise at the levels currently anticipated by the market. 

“At present, prices are being supported in part by sentiment around the resumption of trade and expectations of continued purchasing commitments,” it said. 

Forecast risks

The balance of risks to BMI’s forecast is skewed to the upside, given that the base case assumes a gradual erosion of the geopolitical and trade-related premia currently embedded in prices. “Should the two sides reach a more formalised purchasing agreement, or should Chinese buying accelerate beyond current commitments, the demand outlook for US soybeans would improve materially,” it said.  

A prolonged or escalating US-Iran conflict represents a further upside risk. It would amplify the nitrogen fertiliser supply disruption, potentially undermining corn and wheat yields. However, the direct fundamental impact on soybeans would be limited, said the research agency, adding that adverse weather remains an ever-present risk.  

Published on April 9, 2026