India’s edible oil sector is at a critical juncture where climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and energy markets are all interacting as a result of which the edible oil imports will see a shift from price-led to supply-driven sourcing, according to Bhavna Shah, Vice President of Indian Vegetables oil Producers’ Association (IVPA).
Speaking at the 24th International Conference BLACK SEA GRAIN.KYIV-2026, she said: “Three forces — weak monsoons, high crude oil prices and strong global biofuel demand tightening edible oil availability — will play out in 2026-27. However, the overall bias remains slightly bullish as India continues to stay stable, supported by efficient supply chain by the industry, smart imports and policy interventions as and when needed.”
She cautioned about edible oil inflation inching up slightly due to weak monsoon, crude oil volatility, fertiliser shortages, gas-linked production constraints and biofuel mandates tightening global palm oil supply. However, India’s ability to absorb surpluses will act as a cushion.
Bhavna Shah, Vice President, Indian Vegetables oil Producers’ Association (IVPA).
Seen as a sink
“India remains a prime destination for any surpluses. The county is seen as a sink that will absorb any kind of surplus wherever in the world it exists,” she said.
While discourse often focuses on demand-supply, Shah stressed that the edible oil economy must be viewed through the lens of food, feed, and fuel.
With rising biofuel linkages, edible oils are no longer just a food commodity. Fuel price rallies now trigger near-synchronous increases in global edible oil prices due to feedstock diversion.
She emphasised that policy and market assessments must jointly factor in food security, feed needs, and fuel demand, as their interdependence increasingly drives price volatility and trade flows.
Range-bound imports
Edible oil imports have been range-bound at about 15-17 million tonnes (mt) with imports in March 2026 up 11 per cent year-on-year to 1.19 mt. However, the two-month average dipped 12 per cent due to high prices.
For oil year 2025-26, edible oil imports are expected at 16.5 mt and domestic production at 9.6 mt.
On import composition, she said that the sunflower oil will show demand resilience, supply disruptions, especially in Argentina, may delay soybean oil shipments and palm oil shipments remain strong due to favourable price spreads.
“The import basket will be palm heavy. Palm retains its cost edge for now,” she said, adding, post-April 2026, soybean and palm oil will compete for India’s share with China soybean oil making a notable entry.
India relies on imports for around 60 per cent of its edible oil consumption, making it one of the world’s largest importers of edible oil.
“India remains the largest structural demand hub dictating global flows despite persistent import dependence where consumption outpaces production,” she said.
The medium-term tightness still persists despite the strategic pivot accelerated through national missions like national mission on oil palm, national mission on oilseed, MSP enhancement, self-reliance push, she said.
“A maturing policy outlay will dictate import patterns and price trajectories ahead amid ongoing geopolitical tensions across the globe. The Government of India has acted very decisively by calibrating policy, securing supplies, containing inflation, and ensuring stability despite global disruptions,” Shah added.
Published on April 27, 2026