The International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered its global foodgrain production projections for 2026-27 by 3 million tonnes from its earlier estimate on concerns over fertilizer affordability due to the ongoing war in West Asia disrupting the supply chain.

In its latest April estimates, the IGC has projected that grain output will be 2,414 million tonnes compared to its earlier projection of 2,417 million tonnes on an anticipated decline in production of all major crops including wheat and maize.

“Concerns about fertilizer affordability and application decisions have added to the uncertainties about the 2026-27 cropping outlook, including in parts of the southern hemisphere, where upcoming requirements may not be fully covered,” the IGC said in its latest grain market report.

2nd-largest ever

“Although some projections have been trimmed month-on-month, with the total down by 3 million tonnes, the global outturn is still anticipated to be the second largest ever, at 2,414 million tonnes. Compared to last month’s initial outlook, the consumption estimate is lowered, with forecast inventories higher and trade unchanged,” it said. Consumption is pegged 3 million tonnes lower at 2,437 million tonnes compared to the initial estimate.

The council said total grains production is expected to reach a new peak in 2025/26 at 2,474 million tonnes, 6 per cent higher than the previous year. With comparatively slower growth in consumption (+3 per cent), global stocks are forecast to build by 9 per cent, marking the sharpest rate of expansion in nine years. Trade is pegged 6 per cent higher than the previous season, at 451 million tonnes, including increases for most grains, it said.

At 2,414 million tonnes, the world output is projected to remain elevated in 2026/27. However, with the anticipated declines for all major crops, including wheat and maize, the total is seen 2 per cent short of the prior year’s record. With a high level of carry-in stocks offering only partial offsetting, total supply is forecast to be slightly tighter compared to the prior season.

Published on April 24, 2026