The weak onset of south west monsoon is seen weighing on India’s 2026-27 coffee crop as deficit rains are seen hurting the prospects amidst fears of rising pests attacks due to the uneven climatic conditions.

Cumulative rainfall in the key coffee growing districts of Kodagu, Chikmagaluru, Hassan in Karnataka and Wayanad in Kerala has been lower than normal till date. The pre-monsoon showers were also erratic and less than expected this year, growers said.

As per the IMD data, in Kodagu, the cumulative monsoon rainfall deficiency (June 1-17) is estimated at 35 per cent with the country’s largest coffee growing district receiving 169.3 mm rains against a normal of 262.2 mm. Similarly in Chikmagalur, the rain deficit, so far, is estimated at 37 per cent with actual rains being 102.5 mm against a normal of 161.2 mm. In Hassan, the rainfall deficiency is at 29 per cent till now with actual rains of 57.7 mm against a normal of 81.4 mm, whereas in Wayanad the shortfall is higher at 45 per cent with the largest coffee producing district in Kerala receiving 171.7 mm rains against a normal of 311.2 mm.

“The coverage of monsoon has been extremely poor. We didn’t get the full force of the first wave of the monsoon. While it is too early to tell the impact on coffee crop size, let’s wait for the monsoon to play out. Poor monsoon will definitely impact the wider ecological systems like water resources etc,” said Sahadev Balakrishna, chairman, UPASI Coffee Committee.

“Due to the weak monsoon the berry development is bad. Difficult to quantify the impact on the crop. It is really disheartening because of the delayed pre-monsoon showers during March-May, the white stem borer infestation in Arabicas is huge. Even in Robusta the setting is poor except few regions around Mudigere and Aldur that received some decent showers” said M. Salman Baseer, chairman of Karnataka Planters Association.

“Due to the lack of normal rains, growers are unable to take up the manuring and normal cultural activities on the coffee farms,” said B.S. Jayaram, former president of Karnataka Growers Federation. “There’s already a flare up of stem borer and berry borers in some areas,” Jayaram said adding that the normal continuous rains would have kept a check on the pest infestations.

“In Arabica areas, stem borer would be an issue if the dry period continues. The berry development may increase for those who received early blossom in Jan-Feb and that may cause an issue during the heavy rainfall period from July onwards. Different size berries on the stalk may lead to drop, but that may happen from mid-July onwards after heavy rains,” Sahadev said.

The US Department of Agriculture’s local office in Mumbai had recently predicted a 4 per cent decline in India’s 2026-27 coffee output starting October at around 6.14 million bags of 60 kg each or 3.68 lakh tonnes on drop in yields due to unfavourable weather. The projected output of 6.14 million bags comprised of 1.56 million bags of Arabica (93,600 tonnes) and 4.58 million bags of Robusta (2.74 lakh tonnes).

The state-run Coffee Board is yet to announce its initial or post-blossom crop projections for 2026-27 and final crop estimates for 2025-26. In its initial estimates for the 2025-26, the Board had projected a crop of 4.03 lakh tonnes comprising of 1.18 lakh tonne of Arabicas and 2.84 lakh tonne of Robustas.

Published on June 18, 2026