After achieving record exports in the financial year ending March 2026, a weaker crop in the 2025–26 coffee year (ending September) is likely to temper export momentum in the current fiscal, as tighter supplies may weigh on shipment volumes.
A higher crop and robust demand had led to record export volumes over 4.07 lakh tonnes during FY26 with shipments exceeding $2.136 billion in value.
“The crop size this year is going to be a major factor. We expect the arabica output to be slightly higher at around 90,000 tonnes, about 10,000 tonnes more than last year, while the robusta production is seen lower by anywhere between 40-50,000 tonnes less than last year” said Ramesh Rajah, President, Coffee Exporters Association.
2/3rd of output exported
For the current coffee year 2025-26 (October-September), the Coffee Board in its initial or post blossom estimates has pegged the output at 4.03 lakh tonnes, comprising 1.18 lakh tonnes of arabicas and 2.84 lakh tonnes of robustas, which the stakeholders had felt was on the higher side. The Board is yet to release the final production figures for 2025-26.
During 2024-25, India had produced 1.057 lakh tonnes of arabicas and 2.578 lakh tonnes of robustas during 2024-25 totalling 3.63 lakh tonnes, as per the Board’s final estimate for the year. About two thirds of the coffee produced in the country are exported, while the domestic consumption is about a third at over 1 lakh tonnes. India also imports coffee to re-export them as value-added coffees.
Sahadev Balakrishna, Chairman, UPASI Coffee Committee, said the arabica output for 2025-26 was slightly better than last year, while robusta production has seen a decline. “Arabica output may be close to 1 lakh tonnes, above the previous year’s 80,000-90,000 tonnes, while robusta production may be in the range of 2.5-2.6 lakh tonnes”
Premium a challenge
Factors such as poor crop setting and excess rains have impacted the output during 2025-26. Prolonged monsoon rains, which started early in May till early October has impacted the crop in some of the key growing areas such as Karnataka and Kerala resulting in moisture stress, hurting the crop.
M Salman Baseer, Chairman, Karnataka Planters Association (KPA), estimates the crop size of arabicas at around 80,000 tonnes and Robustas at 2.75 lakh tonnes.
Besides a lower crop size, the high premiums that the Indian coffees are commanding could pose a challenge to the exports. Despite the recent decline in prices, the premiums for Indian coffees are largely intact. With premiums for Ugandan coffee rising, the African producer has emerged as a competitor for Indian robustas in the European market, especially Italy, Rajah said.
Published on April 8, 2026