The defining signature of an El Niño in which ocean and atmosphere enter in an intricate coupling may emerge next month as atmospheric pressure patterns begin to respond to warming of waters in equatorial Pacific.
As sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) climb, pressure correspondingly dips over the crucial Niño 3.4 region (equatorial Pacific). In seesawing action, pressure builds towards the west near Darwin, Australia, where descending air masses reinforce the imbalance, raising heat and dry spells at ground level.
India faces heat
The resulting redistribution of heat is already being felt far afield, including over India, nearly 6,300 km to the north-west, though a modest span in terms of atmospheric circulation. Imprint of this coupling is expected to become more pronounced in SST anomalies next month, says a Japan-based scientist.
Swadhin Behera, Director at the Application Research Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology and visiting professor at the University of Tokyo, notes that the evolving signal bears close watch.
Strong El Niño
“Our SINTEX-F forecasts point to a strong El Niño event, in the order of two to three standard deviations in the Niño3 index, though not of the ‘Godzilla’ magnitude suggested by some other models,” Behera said. He cautioned, however, that the assessment may yet evolve as the season advances.
While there is no formal definition, an EL Nino is typically accorded a’ super’ label when peak SSTs cross +2.0°C above seasonal average. Historical precedent points to the rarity of such extremes.
Since 1950, only a handful of episodes — 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24 — have breached the +2.0°C mark for even a single three-month period. Of these, the 2015–16 event alone climbed beyond +2.5°C.
Awe and unease
Meteorologists Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, writing in a recent blog, note that the scientific community has been watching with a mix of awe and unease what appears to be a rapidly intensifying El Niño.
Model guidance lends weight to these concerns. For October, nearly half of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble projects SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region exceeding 2.5°C above the seasonal average, a threshold often associated with ‘super El Niño’ conditions.
Profound implications
Should current projections hold, implications for global temperatures could be profound, raising the prospect that 2026, and more likely 2027, may rank among the hottest years ever recorded. Atmospheric scientist Paul Roundy has warned of a “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years.”
“We are closely monitoring developments, particularly as several operational centres have flagged the potential for a ‘super’ event,” Behera said. Emergence of additional westerly wind bursts (WWBs), or episodic surges of strong winds across the Pacific, could further intensify the phenomenon.
Westerly wind bursts
Such bursts, characterised by brief but forceful reversals of the prevailing east-to-west trade winds along the equator, play a pivotal role in triggering El Niño conditions. By driving warm surface waters eastward, they can amplify warming in the Pacific, at times fuelling the transition to strong or even extreme El Niño events.
“Since March, only one significant WWB has been observed, and there is little clarity on how many more may unfold in the months ahead, given limited model skills in capturing such episodic events,” Behera said.
Monsoon outlook
On India Meteorological Department’s projection of a deficient monsoon, he said SINTEX-F model, too, points to below-normal rainfall. “Possible emergence of a moderate to strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as indicated by several models including SINTEX-F, could exert a compensating influence and offer partial relief,” he added.
Published on April 23, 2026