The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said that an El Nino event is likely to happen by the middle of 2026. The WMO’s global seasonal climate update says that the rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) could trigger El Niño conditions between May and July.
The report indicates that the land surface temperatures will be “nearly globally dominant” above normal for the next three months, and rainfall will be erratic.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.
“Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” he said.
Spring predictability barrier
The spring predictability barrier is a limitation that reduces the skill of ENSO outlooks.
Weaker ocean–atmosphere coupling and seasonal transition dynamics make climate models sensitive to background noise, limiting the reliability of long-range forecasts for El Nino and La Nina events until summer.
In the past, El Nino events have led to either late arrival of the south-west monsoon in India or deficient rain, besides prolonged dry spells. The India Meteorological Department has predicted that it would be a below-normal monsoon this year, with the rainfall being 92 per cent of the long period average.
In 2023, El Nino broke out in June and lasted for 11 months, affecting the Indian monsoon. It also resulted in 2024 being the warmest on record, as it continued until April 2024. It resulted in foodgrain crops, particularly paddy and pulses, being affected, leading to lower production. It also led to food inflation.
Climate split
According to the WMO report, southern South America, the southern US, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia will all get more rain. Australia, Indonesia, and some parts of southern Asia will have less rain.
El Niño’s warm waters can trigger hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. But it will hinder the same from forming in the Atlantic Basin.
In May, June, and July, most places will probably have higher than normal land surface temperatures. The signal is strongest in Europe, northern Africa, the Caribbean, southern North America, and Central America.
Key step
Some global climate monitoring centres (BOM, JMA, and NOAA) say that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is in a neutral phase as of early April 2026. after the end of the 2025-26 La Nina.
Observations show that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are near average. However, the heat content below the surface was increasing.
The WMO report says that the buildup of warmer-than-average subsurface waters in the equatorial Pacific is a key step in the development of El Nino and supports the expected change.
Published on April 24, 2026