Though India has permitted an additional 2.5 million tonnes (mt) of wheat exports this rabi marketing season (April-September 2025), it will not have any impact on the global market.

“On paper, this signals a strong return to the export market. In practice, however, pricing indicates a very different story. Exports will occur, but only minimally, in cases where market conditions temporarily align, rather than through sustained global competitiveness,” said New Delhi-based exporter Rajesh Paharia Jain. 

“Cost and freight as well as free-on-board prices of Indian wheat do not match the prices in the global market,” said S Pramod Kumar, former president of Roller Flour Mills Federation of India (RFMFI).

Other problems

An industry source, who did not wish to be identified, said Indian prices are $22-25 a tonne higher. “There are other problems, too. Freight rates are high and getting vessels is a problem,” the source said. 

Last week, the government decided to allow an additional volume for export. On February 24, the Directorate-General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) said 2.5 million tonnes of wheat would be allowed for exports. 

Jain said Russian wheat is ruling at $235-240 and Ukraine’s at $235-238. Both have 11.5 per cent protein content, while the European Union wheat, with 11-11.5 per cent protein, is ruling at $240-245. In contrast, Indian wheat, with a protein content of 11.5 per cent, is offered at $265-270 a tonne. 

Slack demand

“At these levels, India is not competitive in price-sensitive destinations, which dominate the global wheat trade,” he said.

“There is no demand globally for Indian wheat,” said the source. This is despite global wheat prices surging to a nine-month high of $6.02 a bushel due to as ongoing weather risks and fertilizer supply disruptions.

“Indian wheat is not considered generally by the global market for food until there is a shortage. Usually, it goes for feed purpose,” said Kumar.

MSP factor

Jain said the mismatch between Indian and global prices makes sense when viewed through “the domestic lens”. India’s export parity is structurally elevated due to minimum support price (MSP)-based procurement,  high inland logistics and handling costs.

Kumar and the source said the ₹2,585 a quintal MSP was one of the reasons why domestic prices are higher than global rates. Though wheat prices are ruling at least ₹100 a quintal lower than the MSP, Kumar said prices have improved of late by ₹200. 

Jain said stockholding and storage constraints also lead to price mismatch. “ Exports are not designed to compete aggressively in the international market, but to relieve domestic stock pressure,  support internal price stability, and avoid distress sales during peak arrivals. The export policy functions primarily as a market management tool, not a pure trade strategy,” he said.

Stocks at 4-year high

Data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI) showed that wheat stocks were 21.79 million tonnes as of April 1. They were the highest since FCI had 27.34 mt in 2021. 

The industry source said that India could export, at most, to Bangladesh and Nepal. Kumar said due to a porous border, at least 50,000 tonnes. 

“At current levels, demand is likely to be selective and limited. Bangladesh, traditionally a key outlet, could be one, but it is currently under financial stress,” said Jain.

Price-sensitive nations, particularly in South-East Asia, are unlikely to engage with India and could remain focused on wheat from the Black Sea region. Potential prospects could only be in specific cases of feed substitution if corn prices rise due to short-term supply gaps, he said.

Can’t be first choice

The source said shipments to West Asia are ruled out as Australian wheat was cheaper. Jain said that it was possible to export wheat to West Asia, but it could be for small tenders and immediate needs.

“India cannot be the first-choice origin in any wheat-importing region, going by current prices,” he said.

The source said even Africa may not need Indian wheat.  

Jain said the only scenario where India becomes relevant will be market disruption, with triggers being escalation of the Ukraine war affecting the Black Sea region or the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.   “Spike in insurance rates or rerouting of vessels, India could find buyers nearby. However, no structural shortage is expected currently,” he said.

Flour millers’ survey

The sources said Indian wheat currently suffers from quality problems with the crop being affected by recent rains in the growing areas. 

According to a survey by RFMFI, the wheat crop could be 5-10 per cent lower than the Government’s initial estimate of 120 mt. “Unseasonal, heavy rainfall and hailstorms in March and April 2026 across major Indian States such as Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan have damaged the crop,” said the source. 

Jain said the rain has resulted in high moisture levels in the crop, leading to shrivelled, discoloured and lustreless grains.

 Another industry source said the government may not be able to fulfil its 30.3 mt wheat procurement target. 

India re-entered the global wheat market after imposing a ban in 2022 after the crop was affected by heatwaves in March 2022. 

Published on April 23, 2026