After two weeks of fall, crude oil prices rose over the last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($99.13/barrel) and crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹8,817/barrel) were up 9.7 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. Here is our analysis:
Brent crude oil futures, after opening with a gap-up, touched a two-week high of $107.40 on Thursday before moderating to the current level of $99.13.
The price action since mid-March shows that despite the volatility, Brent crude futures has largely stayed within the $92-115 price band. Currently hovering near $99, the contract can move either way.
In case the resistance at $115 is breached, the contract can rise to $130. But if it breaches the support at $92, the downswing can extend to $80.
Crude oil futures (May), like Brent crude futures, has been trading in a broad range since mid-March. It has been oscillating within ₹7,800 and ₹9,500. Note that the 50-day moving average now coincides with ₹7,800, making it a good support.
If the ongoing rally goes beyond the resistance at ₹9,500, it can open the door for an extension to ₹10,500 or even ₹11,000.
On the other hand, if crude oil futures drops below the support at ₹7,800, the near-term outlook can turn weak. In such a scenario, the contract can decline to ₹7,000. A breach of this can drag the contract further lower to ₹6,200.
Overall, as it stands, there is no clarity with respect to the trend for this week.
Trade strategy: Refrain from taking fresh trades.
Published on April 25, 2026
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