Nifty 50 (25,179) and Bank Nifty (60,529) lost 0.4 per cent and 1.6 per cent over the last week. The futures and options data of both indices show a bearish bias. Here is our analysis:

Nifty 50

Nifty futures (March) (25,341) opened with a gap-up last Monday and marked a high of 25,935. However, the contract could not extend the rally and witnessed a fall.

Even after the downswing, until Thursday, the contract managed to stay above the support at 25,500. But on Friday, it fell about 1.2 per cent and breached the base at 25,500, turning the near-term outlook bearish. For the week, the contract was down 1.6 per cent.

Although 25,300 is a support, it can only help Nifty futures for a corrective rally but less likely to aid in a bullish trend reversal. The upswing is likely to be capped between 25,500 and 25,600.

A resumption in decline after the uptick to the 25,500-25,600 region can drag Nifty futures to 25,000. The price band of 24,850-25,000 is a support band.

On the other hand, if the contract surpasses the hurdle at 25,600, the 21-day moving average, now at 25,775, can be a barrier. Only a clear breakout of this can turn the outlook positive.

Supporting the bearish view, the open interest of March futures increased as the price dropped. Over the last week, the outstanding open interest of the contract shot up from 56 lakh contracts to 143 lakh contracts. This denotes short build-up.

Considering the aforementioned factors, we hold a bearish outlook for Nifty futures for this week. Traders can consider fresh short positions on futures.

Strategy: For a better risk-reward ratio, instead of shorting now, traders can sell Nifty futures (March) if it rises to 25,480. Place a stop-loss at 25,700. When the contract falls to 25,200, revise the stop-loss to 25,350. Book profits at 25,000.

Nifty Bank

Nifty Bank futures (March) (60,870) began last week higher on Monday at 61,609, compared with the preceding week’s close of 61,546. But it could not extend the gain.

While it witnessed some consolidation in the following sessions, a fall of 1 per cent on Friday dragged the contract below a key support at 61,150. On a weekly basis, it was down 1.1 per cent.

Going ahead, there could be a rise but it is likely to be arrested at 61,150. After this corrective move, Nifty Bank futures is likely to see a fresh drop. Notable support levels can be seen at 60,500 and 60,000.

In case the contract reclaims 61,150 and rallies, it will face a barrier at 61,850. Only a clear breakout of this hurdle can change the outlook to positive. Until then, it will be bears all the way.

Substantiating the weakness, Nifty Bank futures (March) has seen a short build-up. This is denoted by an increase in open interest as the contract slipped. The open interest rose from 8.5 lakh contracts to nearly 15 lakh contracts over the past week.

Overall, the recent breach of the support and the arrival of fresh sellers as indicated by an increase in open interest mean that the probability for further decline is high.

Strategy: Wait for Nifty Bank futures to rise to 61,050 and then initiate fresh short positions. Place stop-loss at 61,500. When the contract falls to 60,500, alter the stop-loss to 60,750. Revise the stop-loss to 60,500 when the contract declines to 60,200. Book profits at 60,000.

Published on February 28, 2026