Crude oil prices have now risen for a second week in a row. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($108.20/barrel) and crude oil futures in the domestic market (₹9,665/barrel) were up 9.1 per cent and 9.6 per cent respectively. Below is an analysis.

Brent futures ($108.20)

Brent crude oil futures extended the rally and marked a high of $114.70 on Thursday before moderating to the current level. The price action over the last two months shows that the contract has been trading within the broad range of $94-114, barring the brief drop to $86.09 on April 17.

So, the next leg of trend depends on the direction of the breakout of the aforementioned range. A breakout of $114 will open the door for an upswing to $125-130 whereas a breach of the support at $94, can drag it lower to $80. But as it stands, the risk is tilted on the upside for the breakout of $114.

MCX-Crude oil (₹9,665)

Crude oil futures (May) was largely trading between ₹8,000 and ₹9,500 for about two months. But last week, it broke out of ₹9,500 and rallied to hit a high of ₹10,571 on Thursday before ending the week lower at ₹9,665.

Although there is a fresh breakout in MCX futures, Brent crude futures is yet to see one. As the latter is the driving force, we cannot go long on MCX futures based on it seeing a fresh breakout.

For the next actual uptrend to happen, MCX futures should surpass ₹10,600. In such a case, the contract can rise to ₹12,000.

Trade strategy: Traders with higher risk-appetite can buy crude oil futures at ₹9,000. Target and stop-loss can be ₹12,000 and ₹7,800 respectively. 

Published on May 2, 2026