The conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire announcement by US President Donald Trump has brought immediate relief to global markets, but the maritime industry remains far from normalcy, with uncertainty continuing to weigh heavily on operations.
Nearly 800 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying over 20,000 people of various nationalities, said sources.
“This isn’t over for shipping,” said Ashish Sheth, Chairman and Managing Director of Sarjak Container Lines. “The strait may be open, but until confidence returns, the system isn’t. And in shipping, confidence is what moves cargo.”
Transit volumes illustrate the depth of the disruption.
Daily vessel movements through the strait, which averaged 130–140 before hostilities began on February 28, plunged to single digits at the peak of the crisis. Even after the ceasefire announcement, traffic has recovered to just around nine vessels a day — less than 10 per cent of normal levels, he said. “Every shipowner is watching closely. Whether this holds or collapses will determine the next move,” Sheth added.
Trade flow
The broader concern extends to global trade flows. Essential commodities such as food, meat, and general merchandise destined for Gulf ports remain vulnerable to disruption.
Operational risks also remain significant. Jakob Larsen, Chief Safety and Security Officer at BIMCO, a global shipping community in 120 countries, cautioned that ships exiting the Gulf must coordinate closely with both US and Iranian authorities. “An uncoordinated transit would entail heightened risk and is not advisable,” Larsen said, pointing to the narrow and congested nature of the strait.
Compounding the risk is uncertainty around Iran’s command structure following recent attacks. While Tehran has indicated it intends to control transits, disruptions within its military hierarchy could lead to miscommunication between authorities clearing vessels and those controlling weapons systems.
“Iran still retains significant capabilities to influence shipping,” Larsen noted, citing anti-ship missiles, drones, fast attack craft, coastal artillery, and mines as ongoing threats.
Adding to the caution, Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, said a rapid return of vessels to the region is unlikely unless the ceasefire is extended.
Operators wary
“Many ships have already diverted to other regions, and operators are wary of being trapped again if the window closes,” he said. Even in a best-case scenario, oil exports could take time to recover due to the need to restart production and repair damaged infrastructure.
From an insurance perspective, the situation remains equally cautious. R Balasundaram, Head of Marine Insurance at Policybazaar for Business, said the ceasefire offers only temporary respite.
“A ceasefire is not the end of hostilities — it is merely a pause,” he said. While assurances of safe passage from Iran may ease immediate concerns, insurers are unlikely to reduce war risk premiums anytime soon. However, additional underwriting capacity for war cover in the region may become available as ships begin to move out, helping clear the current congestion.
Published on April 8, 2026