TVK chief and Tiruchirappalli East constituency candidate, Vijay, holds the winning certificate after winning the state Assembly election, at Loyola College, in Chennai on Monday | Photo Credit: R SENTHILKUMAR

The results of five State Assembly elections mark a reset of India’s political field. The BJP has scaled its footprint through expansion in both territory and structure. In contrast, the Opposition’s federal coalition has contracted. The setbacks suffered by Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu, the Opposition’s most influential regional anchors, underscores this widening asymmetry. That said, the polls also signal a vote for change in a more familiar ‘anti-incumbency’ sort of way — in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.

The BJP’s West Bengal win represents a watershed moment in Indian federalism. In bringing down Trinamool Congress, which ruled for 15 years, it has once again revealed itself as a ruthlessly efficient election machine. The BJP has won a categorical mandate, amid persistent contestation over process. Home Minister Amit Shah was in relentless campaign mode, having camped in the State for weeks to micromanage booth-level operations and oversee the deployment of over 2.4 lakh personnel of Central armed police forces. Critics and the TMC would frame such a win as a product of systemic disenfranchisement, through SIR that saw the deletion of nearly 10 per cent of the electorate. Yet the BJP’s advance suggests a political realignment that goes beyond these factors.

If Bengal represents rupture, Tamil Nadu signals reinvention. After decades defined by the alternating dominance of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the emergence of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) led by C Joseph Vijay has unsettled entrenched alignments. A familiar discontent with family-rule, with Stalin having lost his own seat, seems to have played a role in Vijay’s win — apart from a young population rooting for a fresh face and ‘change’. Whether Vijay sustains an independent course, carves out a new political grammar, or is eventually drawn into a wider national alignment remains to be seen.

In contrast, Assam reflects consolidation of a more familiar kind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has secured a third term with a two-thirds majority. The Congress’ shoddy show once again shows up its inability to take on BJP in most regions outside of south India. Kerala, however, offers the Congress some solace. If the Congress-led UDF has won, it is only at the expense of the Left Democratic Front — signalling the utter decimation of the Left across India for perhaps the first time since Independence. In Kerala too, the BJP edged forward, winning three seats, indicating a minor but deliberate expansion into new terrain. In Puducherry, the BJP-led NDA is poised to return to office, reinforcing a broader pattern: consolidation where it governs, expansion where it does not. Without the political imagination, energy, leadership and organisational muscle to match the BJP machine, the Opposition risks sliding from one defeat to another. It needs to collectively introspect on its tactics, strategy and cohesiveness.

Published on May 4, 2026